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$112B China Tariff Gap

New trade figures show a record $112 billion mismatch between China’s reported exports to the US and the volume US Customs and Border Protection logged as actually clearing American ports last year — a discrepancy that points to roughly a quarter of Chinese shipments evading applicable tariffs entirely.

The gap is not new, but its scale and direction are. Data from China’s General Administration of Customs and the US Census Bureau show that before Trump’s first-term tariffs took hold, the US consistently recorded more imports from China than Beijing reported sending. That relationship inverted around 2020 and has widened sharply each year since, reaching its largest margin on record in 2025 — a trajectory that tracks directly with escalating US duties.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Greenpeace Says It Can’t Afford The $345M Penalty Related To Dakota Pipeline Protest (theDeepDive)

• Canada expected to see zero population growth this year: report (CTV)

• Sweden Raises Vigilance as Nordic Grid Threat Report Spreads (theDeepDive)

• Foreign Investment Surges to Canada’s Strongest Level Since 2007 (Bloomberg)

• Canada Sends $8 Million in Food Aid to Cuba Amid Deepening Humanitarian Crisis (theDeepDive)

• Hillary Clinton says she has no information on Epstein’s crimes and doesn’t recall meeting him (Globe)

• US Trade Chief Says Canada Must Accept Higher Tariffs in Any New Deal (theDeepDive)

• Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6% for the First Time Since 2022 (WSJ)

• Toronto New Home Sales Hit Four-Decade Low in January, Deepening Historic Slump (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Mining: Ontario ranked as Canada’s most attractive mining investment jurisdiction and second globally, behind Nevada, in a Fraser Institute survey of 256 mining professionals. Saskatchewan placed third globally, while Quebec fell to 22nd worldwide after four years in the top 10. On policy factors alone, Alberta ranked in the global top three, with Ontario fifth and Newfoundland and Labrador seventh. The report assessed 68 jurisdictions, noting weaker policy rankings for Yukon, Manitoba, Nunavut and the Northwest Territories despite strong mineral potential.

• Tech: Nvidia shares fell 5% despite fiscal Q4 revenue of $68.13 billion, up 73% year over year and above the $66.21 billion estimate. Data center revenue reached $62.3 billion, accounting for 91% of total sales and exceeding expectations of $60.69 billion. The company guided Q1 revenue to $78 billion (±2%), well above the $72.6 billion forecast. Investors remain concerned about the sustainability of AI capex as hyperscalers face cash flow pressure despite strong near-term results.

• Budget Deficit: Alberta is set to table a deficit budget, with the province already forecasting a $6.4 billion shortfall this fiscal year based on oil averaging US$61.50 per barrel, below the US$74 needed to balance. The government plans $10.8 billion for education (+7%) and $7.7 billion for doctors (+22%) despite weaker resource revenues, previously above $20 billion annually but now “dramatically lower.” Finance Minister Nate Horner noted a 5% provincial sales tax could raise about $6 billion, though no referendum is planned. The deficit is attributed to lower oil prices and population-driven spending pressures.

• Markets: Canada’s TSX rose 193.51 points to 34,320.84, led by industrial and energy stocks as oil climbed US$1.17 to US$66.59 per barrel. U.S. markets were mixed, with the Dow up 37.10 points while the S&P 500 fell 43.61 and the Nasdaq dropped 297.54. The Canadian dollar was steady at 73.06 cents US, and gold declined US$31.10 to US$5,195.10 an ounce.

• AI: Norway’s $2.2 trillion oil fund, which holds stakes in over 7,200 companies and about 1.5% of global listed stocks, is now using AI (including Anthropic’s Claude) to screen investments for ESG and reputational risks within 24 hours of purchase. The fund reported 2025 profit of 2.36 trillion kroner ($246.9 billion) and has nearly 40% of assets in U.S. equities, including ~1.3% stakes in Nvidia and Microsoft and 1.2% in Apple. AI tools have helped flag risks such as forced labor and corruption, with NBIM saying it exited some investments before broader market reactions. Governance rules on exclusions are under temporary revision following controversy over past divestments.

Orezone Gold Buys Into Canada

The stock market and stuff

• TD Bank Posts Record Adjusted Profit In Q1 2026 As Revenue Climbs (theDeepDive)

• Trump $187M Claim Meets DeepSeek-Nvidia Blackwell Leak (theDeepDive)

• Wall Street turns to complex trades to dodge AI ‘implosions’ (FT)

• Royal Bank of Canada Opens Fiscal 2026 With Record Q1 Profit (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Minaurum Silver Accelerates Exploration at Alamos Silver Project; Expands to Six Drill Rigs and Reports Additional Results (JMN)

• Great Pacific Gold - Updated 5,000 Metre Drill Program at Sinivit-Kavasuki (JMN)

• Cambria Gold Mines Announces Commencement of Infill Drilling at the Premier Gold Project and Marketing Services Update (JMN)

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