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Afghanistan–Pakistan Conflict Escalates

Pakistan’s revent strike on the Omid drug rehabilitation center in Kabul turned a border confrontation into its deadliest phase yet, sharply narrowing the path to a ceasefire and exposing the strategic logic driving the conflict.

UNAMA said on Wednesday that at least 143 people were killed in the strike, while Afghan Taliban authorities put the toll above 400 dead and 250 injured. Pakistan denied hitting a civilian site and said it had precisely targeted military infrastructure.

Before the Omid strike, UNAMA had documented at least 75 deaths and 193 injuries in Afghanistan from cross-border fighting between February 26 and March 13. More than half were reportedly women and children. The strike on a 2,000-bed rehabilitation facility treating drug addiction now stands as the deadliest known incident since the current round of fighting reignited in late February.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• LNG Canada Boosts Asia Exports As Hormuz Disruption Tightens Supply (theDeepDive)

• Conservatives introduce bill to create self-defence law for home invasions (TS)

• Arizona AG Charges Kalshi With 20 Criminal Counts, Testing Federal Shield Over Prediction Markets (theDeepDive)

• EU liberals pitch NATO-style trade pact with Canada, Japan and South Korea (Politico)

• Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura Refinery Restarts Operations After Being Targeted By Drones On March 2 (theDeepDive)

• Canada reports first annual population decline on record (Globe)

• Hormuz Strait Closure Threatens Metals, Food, and Chips — Not Just Oil (theDeepDive)

• Trump waives U.S. shipping law for 60 days to steady oil market (CNBC)

• US and Brazil’s Goias State Ink Deal to Boost Critical Minerals and Rare Earths Cooperation (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Politics: Saskatchewan plans to table a deficit budget, with Premier Scott Moe saying it will protect public services without raising taxes or cutting programs despite lower revenues from market volatility and past Chinese tariffs on Canadian canola. The government plans increased health-care spending for nurse practitioners, shorter wait times, and expanded virtual care, while the NDP opposition questions the fiscal plan after a previously projected surplus failed to materialize.

• Cargo: Two Canadian-owned Desgagnés cargo ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war. The vessels were carrying cargo to Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE and have been unable to transit since early March, though ~90 ships (mostly Iranian) have passed while ~20 vessels were attacked. The ships fly the Barbados flag with ~30 foreign crew members, and the company says it will wait until the route is safe before attempting passage.

• Markets: U.S. stocks fell as oil surged, with the S&P 500 −0.6%, Dow −380 pts (−0.8%), and Nasdaq −0.6%, while Brent crude jumped 4.7% to $108.27 and WTI reached $97.61 amid Iran war supply disruptions. U.S. wholesale inflation rose to 3.4%, reinforcing expectations the Fed will hold interest rates, as rising energy costs push gasoline to ~$3.84/gal. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.22% (vs. 3.97% pre-war), reflecting inflation concerns.

• Economy: The Bank of Canada held its key rate at 2.25% for a third straight meeting, warning the Iran war and ~$100 oil prices (vs. $60 assumed) will push inflation higher in the short term despite February CPI easing to 1.8% (from 2.3%). The economy is weakening with GDP −0.6% in Q4, unemployment at 6.7%, and softer exports, creating a policy dilemma between slowing growth and rising energy-driven inflation. The next rate decision is April 29, with the bank monitoring whether the oil shock causes broader inflation.

• Tech: Researchers uncovered “Darksword,” an iPhone spyware exploit planted on dozens of Ukrainian websites that could target ~220M–270M iPhones running older iOS versions (18.4–18.6.2). The malware can steal data and cryptocurrency wallet information and has been linked to campaigns targeting Ukraine, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Malaysia. Apple says the vulnerabilities are already patched in newer iOS updates, but many devices remain exposed if not updated.

This Gold Bull Market Is Getting Too Crowded

The stock market and stuff

• Glencore’s CEO Is Privately Telling Investors He Expects Another Shot at Rio Tinto (theDeepDive)

• Boeing Sees Negative Margins For 2026 As Spirit Deal Reveals True Cost (theDeepDive)

• Oil Soars Toward $110 After Israel Strikes Gas Field in Iran (WSJ)

• Saudi Aramco Reroutes Crude to Yanbu Amid Hormuz Crisis, Faces Capacity Constraints (theDeepDive)

• Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 2.25% as Iran Conflict Drives Oil Price Surge (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Steadright Closes Out Financing, Raising $1.6 Million For Moroccan Strategy (theDeepDive)

• Brixton Metals Drills 3,638 g/t Silver Over 18.2 Metres At Langis Project (theDeepDive)

• Questcorp and Riverside Lock Down Key Sonora Mineral Concessions (theDeepDive)

• Altamira Gold Drills 4.2 g/t Over 7 Metres At New Target (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: PTX Metals is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of PTX Metals. The author has been compensated to cover PTX Metals on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.