Sponsored by Antimony Resources

Americans Pay the Tariff Bill

American consumers and businesses absorb approximately 95% of tariff costs, with foreign exporters bearing only 5%, according to the Congressional Budget Office’s February 2026 economic outlook.

The nonpartisan agency’s analysis of tariffs implemented through November 2025 projects that foreign exporters will reduce prices by an amount equivalent to 5% of the tariff rate increases, based on evidence from China’s 2018 and 2019 tariffs.

US businesses absorb roughly 30% of tariff costs through reduced profit margins, while consumers bear the remaining 70% through higher prices, the agency found. The effective tariff rate has climbed about 13 percentage points from roughly 2% in 2024.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Russia Proposes Major Economic Shift to Rejoin the Dollar System (theDeepDive)

• Alberta separating from Canada requires permission of First Nations, AFN leader says (CTV)

• House Passes Measure To Rescind Trump Tariffs On Canada (theDeepDive)

• Donald Trump’s top antitrust enforcer Gail Slater to leave as turf war deepens (FT)

• Global Nuclear Power Generation Hits All-Time High in 2025 (theDeepDive)

• U.S. Smuggled Thousands of Starlink Terminals Into Iran After Protest Crackdown (WSJ)

• Indonesia Orders Largest Nickel Mine to Slash Ore Output (theDeepDive)

• Trump slams Canada as U.S. House passes symbolic vote to end tariffs (GN)

• Canada Makes Payments for 14 Additional F-35 Jets Despite Ongoing Review (theDeepDive)

• Trump is ending deportation surge in Minnesota, White House border czar says (Reuters)

• Anthropic Safety Head Abandons Tech for Poetry, Warns of Global Crises (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Trade War: Customs bond insufficiencies reached a record 27,479 in fiscal 2025, totaling nearly $3.6 billion, driven by higher U.S. tariffs. Tariff revenue jumped to $30 billion in January and $124 billion year-to-date, up 304% year over year, pushing some bond requirements to $450 million. Surety providers report typical bond increases around 200%, with cargo delays when bonds fall short. A pending Supreme Court decision on IEEPA tariffs could lead to refunds and lower bond needs.

• Energy: Goldman Sachs reports U.S. electricity prices rose 6.9% in 2025, outpacing headline inflation, with AI data centers driving about 40% of demand growth. Prices are projected to climb another 6% through 2027, trimming consumer spending by 0.2% and GDP growth by 0.1%, while adding roughly 0.1% to core inflation. Impacts are expected to be larger for lower-income households and regions with heavy data-center concentration. In the PJM grid, watchdog estimates link $23 billion in higher capacity costs to data-center demand.

• Markets: Canada’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 533.64 points to 32,720.55, led by losses in technology, base metals, and industrials. U.S. markets also declined, with the Dow down 400.91 points, the S&P 500 off 77.03 points, and the Nasdaq lower by 370.39 points. The Canadian dollar weakened to 73.40 cents US, while crude oil slipped to US$63.48 per nda per barrel and gold edged down to US$5,079.40 per ounce.

• Tech: Alphabet issued a rare 100-year sterling bond as part of a roughly $20 billion multi-currency debt sale, with the £1 billion tranche reportedly drawing nearly 10× demand and pricing about 120 bps above 10-year gilts. The move comes as Alphabet projects $185 billion in capex this year, highlighting the scale of borrowing tied to AI and data-center expansion. Strategists say the deal reflects historically tight credit spreads and late-cycle enthusiasm, while also helping Alphabet diversify funding beyond the crowded U.S. dollar market. Investors are effectively betting on Alphabet’s long-term durability, locking in yields just above 6% despite technological and market uncertainty.

• Politics: The Kremlin says it’s actively discussing ways to help fuel-starved Cuba amid a deepening energy crisis and is dismissing U.S. tariff threats on countries supplying oil to Havana as something it “wouldn’t want any escalation over.” Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Cuba’s fuel situation “critical” and said Moscow is in “intensive contact” with Cuban officials about possible assistance, while also seeking constructive dialogue with the U.S. on the matter. The U.S. has threatened tariffs on any nation that ships oil to Cuba under its national emergency, intensifying longstanding sanctions and contributing to jet fuel shortages that have grounded international flights.

Platinum and Palladium Are Being Repriced

The stock market and stuff

• CME Group Plans First Rare Earth Futures Contract to Break China’s Pricing Power (theDeepDive)

• Silver Short Interest Hits Highs As Miners Turn Volatile (theDeepDive)

• Stellantis Wants to Build Cars at Idled Ontario Plant, Canada CEO Says (Bloomberg)

• Ottawa Directs Certificate For Pembina Liquids Pipeline (theDeepDive)

• Mining Sector Drives Canada IPO Revival Amid Strong Commodity Prices (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Orvana Minerals Q1 2026: Revenue, Margin Pops Failed To Save Net Loss (theDeepDive)

• Fokus Mining To Be Acquired For $0.26 Per Share In Cash By Lassonde-Backed PrivateCo (theDeepDive)

• STLLR Receives Recovery Permit For Hollinger Tailings Project Under New Ontario Framework (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Antimony Resources is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Antimony Resources. The author has been compensated to cover Antimony Resources on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.