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Can Canada Win Big in the Philippines?

Canada’s proposed free trade agreement with the Philippines starts with a modest number: $3.4 billion in bilateral merchandise trade in 2025.

That is not yet a market-moving figure for Canada. It is the scale of a relationship still being built, not one already carrying the weight of Ottawa’s diversification agenda. The question is whether Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government can turn that small base into a larger strategic platform.

Carney and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met in Vancouver to launch a broader Canada-Philippines Strategic Partnership covering trade, energy, defence, labour, tourism and culture. Ottawa said the priority is concluding a bilateral free trade agreement by the end of 2026, with a target of tripling bilateral trade by 2035.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Ted Cruz Mocks Mamdani’s Aircon Advice, Gets Texas Grid Factcheck (theDeepDive)

• Alberta proposes southern route for new West Coast pipeline (Globe)

• Carney Touts Trade Deal With The Philippines, What Does Canada Have To Gain? (theDeepDive)

• Trump will oppose heavy US AI regulation, says outgoing tech adviser (FT)

• Canada Earmarks $150M For Eurovision Debut. Is This The Start Of Carney’s Middle-Powers Plan? (theDeepDive)

• Hegseth Prepared a Bombshell Plan to Cut Troops in Europe. Then It Got Nixed. (WSJ)

• Ethics Committee Moves To Probe Carney-Eby’s Condo Housing Plan (theDeepDive)

• Colombian President Asks Trump to Remove Him From Sanctions List (Bloomberg)

• BC Gets $7.4B Push From Ottawa To Turn Permitting Into National Bet (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Markets: Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 328.23 points to 35,294.90 in a broad-based rally, while U.S. markets were closed for the July 4 holiday. The Canadian dollar traded at 70.40 US cents, WTI crude slipped to US$68.65/barrel, and gold climbed US$58.30 to US$4,184.00/oz.

• Trade War: The U.S. declined to renew CUSMA in its current form, sending the agreement into an annual review process, though it remains in force while negotiations continue. U.S. Ambassador Pete Hoekstra said Canada and the U.S. are still far apart on key trade issues but remains optimistic a new agreement can be reached, noting talks will continue through the summer despite missing the July 1 renewal deadline.

• Auto: Canadian light vehicle sales rose 1.9% YoY to 182,000 in June, ending an 8-month streak of annual declines, with a seasonally adjusted annual sales rate of 1.84 million. Despite the monthly improvement, first-half 2026 sales totaled 950,000, down 2.6% from 976,000 in the same period of 2025.

• Real Estate: Greater Vancouver home sales rose 9.6% YoY to 2,390 in June, though they remained 12.4% below the 10-year average, while the benchmark home price held at $1.099M, down 6.0% YoY and essentially unchanged from May. New listings fell 6.0% to 5,938, while total inventory declined 3.1% to 17,017, remaining 30.2% above the long-term average.

• Oil: The Iran war caused the largest daily oil supply shock on record, peaking at 14 million bpd (13.6% of global demand) and removing an estimated 1.5 billion barrels from the market so far, while also disrupting ~20% of global LNG production. However, the 1979 Iranian Revolution remains the largest cumulative oil crisis, with 2.7–4.3 billion barrels of lost production over multiple years, exceeding the current conflict's total supply loss.

Why the West Still Doesn’t Have an Antimony Plan

The stock market and stuff

• Gold prices set for first weekly rise in a month as investors scale back Fed rate hike bets (CNBC)

• Google Loses Final EU Appeal, Must Pay Record $4.7 Billion Android Fine (theDeepDive)

• Canadian Stocks Enjoy Broad Gains After New Pipeline Proposal (Bloomberg)

In the juniors

• Norsemont Mining Provides Choquelimpie Drilling Update (JMN)

• Wallbridge Halts Drilling at Detour-Fenelon as Quebec Wildfires Force Evacuation (theDeepDive)

• Orvana Minerals Provides Taguas Drilling Update: Full Assay Results From 2026 Drilling Campaign; Provides El Valle-Boinás Brownfield Drilling Update (JMN)

FULL DISCLOSURE: First Majestic Silver is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of First Majestic Silver. The author has been compensated to cover First Majestic Silver on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.