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Canada Leads Defense Bank Race

The competition to host the Defence, Security and Resilience Bank entered a new phase this week as Canada welcomed representatives from 18 nations to Montréal for the first formal round of charter negotiations — a development that positions the country closer to landing the institution it has been lobbying hardest to attract.

As previously reported, a host country decision was anticipated for late March. While no announcement has been made, Canada’s selection as the negotiations venue — and its role as the dominant banking backer — signals it remains the frontrunner.

The talks, which Canada’s federal government is hosting from March 23 to 26, opened the first of three negotiating rounds — with delegates working through the bank’s charter, governance framework, headquarters selection, and executive leadership. The process is scheduled to wrap by the end of April.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• USPS Files for First-Ever Fuel Surcharge on Packages, Citing Iran War Energy Costs (theDeepDive)

• Mortgage Rates Rise for Fourth Straight Week (WSJ)

• US-EU Trade Deal Is Approved But Not Settled (theDeepDive)

• Canada officially hits NATO defence spending target (CTV)

• Epic Games Cuts More Than 1,000 Jobs as Fortnite Engagement Slides (theDeepDive)

• Ottawa plans $1.7-billion boost in housing transfers to provinces, territories (Globe)

• Alberta-Ottawa Pact Targets 75% Methane Cut by 2035 (theDeepDive)

• The great Canadian housing gap – 55 per cent of Canadians say they’re not living in their ideal home (TS)

• Modi Gives Trump Little as India Walks the Line on West Asia (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Real Estate: TD Economics sharply downgraded Canada’s 2026 housing outlook, now forecasting home sales −1.8% YoY and prices −0.3%, versus prior estimates of +9.3% sales and +4.1% prices. The biggest revisions are in Ontario (sales −3.2%, prices −4%) and B.C. (sales −0.2%, prices −1.2%), reflecting weak demand and affordability pressures. A rebound is expected in 2027 (sales +9.6%, prices +2.7%) as economic conditions improve.

• Geopolitics: President Donald Trump said Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill gesture amid ongoing conflict and indirect negotiations. The strait, which normally carries ~20M barrels/day (~25% of global seaborne oil), remains largely disrupted despite this limited passage. The U.S. has proposed a 15-point peace framework via Pakistan, while Iran countered with demands including sovereignty over the strait, keeping tensions and supply risks elevated.

• Markets: Stocks fell as oil surged amid Iran war uncertainty, with the S&P 500 −1.2%, Dow −368 pts (−0.8%), and Nasdaq −1.6%, while Brent rose 4.8% to $101.94 and WTI 5% to $94.86. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 4.40% (from 3.97% pre-war), raising borrowing costs and dampening growth. Big tech declined (Meta −7.2%, Alphabet −2.7%), while energy stocks gained (ConocoPhillips +3.4%, Chevron +1.8%).

• Politics: The federal government proposed a $1.7B housing fund to help provinces cut development fees and speed up construction, aiming to boost homebuilding and reduce regulatory barriers. Funds can also support construction productivity and interprovincial trade improvements, as Ottawa targets doubling housing supply. The plan depends on legislation and follows Ontario’s move to temporarily remove HST on some new homes for one year.

• Oil: Enbridge plans to fund U.S. law enforcement via an escrow account to cover policing costs for its $450M Line 5 pipeline reroute in Wisconsin, which transports ~540,000 bpd. The fund has no cap and could reach millions, covering expenses like patrols and crowd control during expected protests. Critics warn of conflicts of interest and over-policing, especially from Indigenous communities opposing the project over environmental risks.

Why Gold Is Falling in a Liquidity Crisis

The stock market and stuff

• Air Canada CEO Apologizes: “I Am Still Unable To Express Myself Adequately In French” (theDeepDive)

• Rio Tinto Shuts Primary Canadian Diamond Mine as Reserves Exhaust (theDeepDive)

• US inflation will surge to 4.2% on energy shock, warns OECD (FT)

• G Mining Posts Strong 2025 On TZ Full Commercial Year, But Still Missed Production Guidance (theDeepDive)

• Australia to Implement Floor Price for Key Minerals in Supply Push (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Orezone Closes Casa Berardi Acquisition in Quebec For $352M (theDeepDive)

• Antimony Resources Expands New Discovery Following Trenching (theDeepDive)

• Contango and Dolly Varden Close Merger to Create North American Mid-Tier Contender (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Sage Potash is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Sage Potash. The author has been compensated to cover Sage Potash on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.