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Carney Draws Line on China Trade

Ottawa is explicitly rejecting any China free trade track, after a US threat framed a China “deal” as a potential trigger for a blanket 100% tariff on Canadian goods entering the US.

President Donald Trump, in a widely circulated line, warned that “If Canada makes a deal with China, it will immediately be hit with a 100% Tariff against all Canadian goods and products coming into the U.S.A.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney, responding to the tariff threat, said Canada has commitments under CUSMA not to pursue free trade agreements with non-market economies without prior notification, adding Canada has no intention of doing that with China or any other non-market economy.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Western Canadian Provinces, Territories Coordinate on Critical Minerals (theDeepDive)

• Canada’s oil industry thrives as sales to China soar (FT)

• Toyota Starts $1.1 Billion RAV4 Production in Ontario (theDeepDive)

• Mark Carney denies walking back Davos speech in call with Trump (Globe)

• Strikers Block Mining Route to Chile Copper Giants (theDeepDive)

• Trump’s High-Stakes Bid to Dole Out $100 Billion More in Tax Refunds (WSJ)

• Trump Admin Takes Equity In USAR As Firm Signs $1.6B CHIPS LOI (theDeepDive)

• Texas governor halts new H-1B visa petitions by state agencies, public universities (Reuters)

• Wyoming Hedges Against Dollar Decline With Historic $10 Million Gold Reserve (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Tech: Mozilla president Mark Surman is deploying ~US$1.4B in reserves to back an open, trustworthy AI ecosystem, positioning a “rebel alliance” of startups against giants like OpenAI (~US$500B valuation; US$60B+ raised) and Anthropic (~US$350B valuation; US$30B+ raised). Mozilla Ventures has invested US$35M initially across 55+ companies and targets 20% annual growth in non-search revenue, betting that open-source AI can scale despite capital asymmetry and a pro-consolidation policy climate.

• Real Estate: U.S. home sales are deteriorating fast, with 40,000+ purchase contracts canceled in December—16.3% of pending deals, the highest on record since 2017, according to Redfin. Sellers outnumbered buyers by 47% (631,535 more sellers), also a record, as high prices, mortgage rates, and economic uncertainty drive buyer pullbacks; pending sales fell 9% MoM per National Association of Realtors, signaling weak closed sales into early 2026.

• Market: Canada’s S&P/TSX fell 36.38 points to 33,056.94, dragged by industrial and telecom losses, while U.S. markets were mixed (Dow −322.32, S&P 500 +37.98, Nasdaq +246.12). The CAD strengthened to US$0.7351, crude rose to US$61.70/bbl, and gold edged up to US$5,087.20/oz in late-morning trading.

• Layoffs: United Parcel Service plans to cut up to 30,000 jobs in 2026, reduce ~25M operational hours, and close 24 facilities as it winds down its Amazon partnership and accelerates automation. The move follows 48,000 job cuts in 2025 and targets ~US$3B in savings from the Amazon unwind, even as UPS beat Q4 earnings estimates and shares rose 4%. The International Brotherhood of Teamsters signaled support only if contractual commitments are upheld.

• Politics: PM Mark Carney reaffirmed he did not walk back his World Economic Forum speech, rejecting claims by Scott Bessent that he softened remarks during a call with Donald Trump. Carney said he “meant what he said” about economic coercion and adapting to shifts in U.S. trade policy, despite Trump later threatening 100% tariffs over Canada-China ties. The episode underscores escalating trade tensions and conflicting narratives following Carney’s Davos address.

What comes after $100 Silver and 5000 Gold?

The stock market and stuff

• BlackRock Crypto Transfers Are Redemptions, Not Dumps, Analysts Say (theDeepDive)

• Aya Gold Guides To 6.5 Million Silver Equivalent Ounce Production Midpoint In 2026 (theDeepDive)

• GM predicts tariffs will cost it $4-billion this year (Globe)

• Skeena Receives Environmental Approval For Eskay Creek Project (theDeepDive)

• Nvidia Paid ‘Tens of Thousands’ for Pirated Books After Being Warned They Were Illegal (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Tiger Gold Mobilizes Third Drill Rig and Commences Drilling at Dos Quebradas (JMN)

• Steadright Enters LOI For 60% Interest In SilverLine Mining (theDeepDive)

• McEwen Drilling Returns Significant Intersection at Gold Bar Mine Complex in Nevada: 5.55 gpt Gold over 44.2 Meters; Transformation into a Long-Life Mine Continues (JMN)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Cardiol Therapeutics is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Cardiol Therapeutics. The author has been compensated to cover Cardiol Therapeutics on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.