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Carney Knew Keystone Revival

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walked into his October White House meeting with US President Donald Trump already knowing that pipeline company South Bow Corp. was privately exploring a revival of the cancelled Keystone XL pipeline, a federal government source told Reuters on Tuesday.

Carney brought Keystone XL to the table at the White House in October 2025, offering it as a concession to unlock relief from US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, then at 50%. Trump responded positively, sources with knowledge of the meeting said.

“He certainly was aware that there would be some private-sector interest,” the federal source told Reuters, speaking anonymously to discuss the matter candidly.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Canada Certifies Gulfstream G700 and G800 Jets, Closing Aviation Dispute With Washington (theDeepDive)

• anada's housing market suffers largest price decline among major economies, says BIS (FP)

• Hegseth to Anthropic: Allow Autonomous Weapons and Mass Surveillance of Americans — or Else (theDeepDive)

• U.S., Canada officials to meet in coming weeks on trade (Globe)

• Haunt For Gold: Reserves Sold By Trudeau Now Cost Canada Over $373M (theDeepDive)

• Iran threatens escalation if US attacks (FT)

• More Trump Tariffs Coming After Supreme Court Decision (theDeepDive)

• U.S. Eases Restrictions on Sale of Venezuelan Oil to Cuba (WSJ)

• US Homebuyer Count Falls to Record Low as Seller Gap Widens (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Real Estate: Mortgage rates fell to 6.09%, the lowest since September 2022, but total mortgage applications rose just 0.4% WoW. Refinance applications increased 4% WoW and were 150% higher YoY, while purchase applications dropped 5% WoW despite being 12% higher YoY. Redfin reported nearly 40,000 canceled home contracts in January, representing 13.7% of deals, the highest January share since 2017. Adjustable-rate mortgages remained popular, with ARM share above 8% as rates were more than 80 basis points below fixed mortgages.

• Tech: Seven of the eight trillion-dollar tech companies are down in 2026, with Nvidia the only gainer, up 2.7% while the Nasdaq has fallen over 2.5%; Microsoft, Amazon and Tesla show double-digit declines. Nvidia derives roughly 90% of revenue from data centers, and analysts expect fiscal Q4 revenue to jump 68% year over year to $66 billion, with the April quarter projected up 63% to $72 billion. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Amazon are forecast to spend nearly $700 billion combined on AI this year, more than 60% above 2025 levels. Investors are focused on demand for upcoming Vera Rubin systems and the strategic impact of Nvidia’s $20 billion Groq asset acquisition.

• Epstein Files: Bill Gates told Gates Foundation staff he “did nothing illicit” with Jeffrey Epstein and did not stay overnight, though they met across multiple countries. Newly released DOJ emails show exchanges on philanthropy, Microsoft’s CEO search, and personal matters, while the foundation says no payments or funds involving Epstein were ever made. The disclosures follow broader fallout from the Epstein files, which have prompted resignations by some individuals. Gates has reiterated that his association with Epstein was a mistake.

• Oil: OPEC+ is likely to consider increasing April oil output by 137,000 barrels per day, ending a three-month pause, with eight key producers set to meet on March 1. The move would help Saudi Arabia and the UAE regain market share as Russia and Iran face sanctions and Kazakhstan’s production recovers. Separately, Saudi Arabia has activated contingency plans for a short-term production and export surge if a potential U.S. strike on Iran disrupts supply. The developments come amid expectations of peak summer demand and rising geopolitical tensions supporting oil prices.

• Trade War: U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said he spoke with Canadian officials Wednesday, with in-person talks planned in a few weeks as Canada floated “a few ideas.” The update follows the Supreme Court striking down many IEEPA-based tariffs and the U.S. imposing a temporary 10% global tariff under Section 122, from which CUSMA-compliant Canadian goods remain exempt. Greer indicated some tariffs may rise to 15% or higher depending on countries. He said progress with Canada will likely align with the upcoming CUSMA review later this year.

This Could Be the Next Multi-Million Ounce Gold Camp

The stock market and stuff

• Loblaw Q4 2025 Profit Surge Looks Calendar-Driven, Not Structural (theDeepDive)

• National Bank Q1 2026 Profit Jumps 26% as CWB Scales Up (theDeepDive)

• Nvidia earnings report collides with Wall Street skepticism over AI spending (CNBC)

• Scotiabank Q1 2026 Net Income More Than Doubled Due To Impairment Loss (theDeepDive)

• BMO Grows Q1 2026 Earnings As Credit Costs Ease, Expenses Rise (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Viva Gold Commences Drilling at its Tonopah Gold Project in Nevada (JMN)

• Nord Precious Metals Hits Multiple Intervals Of Mineralization In Latest Drill Hole At Castle East (theDeepDive)

• Fortuna Mining intersects 6.0 g/t gold over 24.1 meters at Southern Arc, Diamba Sud Project, Senegal (JMN)

FULL DISCLOSURE: PTX Metals is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of PTX Metals. The author has been compensated to cover PTX Metals on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.