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China Halts Key Mineral Exports

China’s recent suspension of critical mineral and magnet exports to the US is sending shockwaves through key industries, including automotive, aerospace, semiconductors, and military contracting. The abrupt halt, according to observers, appears to be part of a new regulatory system under development by the Chinese government.

The halt targets six heavy rare earth elements that are predominantly used within magnets that are essential for electric motors. Major American manufacturers, such as Ford, General Motors, Boeing, and Lockheed Martin, rely heavily on these materials for vehicles, aircraft, and defense technology.

One particular material in question, dysprosium oxide, is priced at around $204 per kilogram in Shanghai, with costs climbing higher outside of China. While rare earth magnets make up a small fraction of China’s overall exports, any disruption can still have outsized consequences on global production lines.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Ackman Now Calls For Full 90-Day Pause On Tariffs, Bringing Down To 10%(theDeepDive)

• Ontario collects $260,000 from one-day electricity surcharge on U.S. exports (CTV)

• Is Insider Trading Still Running Wild In The White House? (theDeepDive)

• Largest First Nation reserve in Canada files lawsuit over unsafe drinking water (Globe)

• Tariffs Off, Tariffs On: Tech Industry Scrambles as White House Sends Mixed Signals (theDeepDive)

• Poilievre takes aim at Carney as he promises to tighten political transparency laws (TS)

• Australia Fills China’s Beef Market Gap As Trade War Halts US Exports (theDeepDive)

• EU issues US-bound staff with burner phones over spying fears (FT)

• Canadian Federal Election: Liberal Staffers Plant ‘Stop the Steal’ Buttons at Conservative Conference (theDeepDive)

• Canadians Are Cashing Out Their American Vacation Homes (WSJ)

• German Conservatives Consider Reversing Nuclear Phase-Out (theDeepDive)

• Nato acquires AI military system from Palantir (FT)

• Trump Pledges Record $1 Trillion Defense Budget, Plans Pentagon Cuts (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Credit Market: Credit spreads have widened in April, but not enough to warrant Federal Reserve intervention, according to UBS. As of April 12, U.S. investment-grade bond spreads were at 113 basis points and junk bond spreads at 419 basis points—well below the Fed’s estimated intervention thresholds of 200 and 720 basis points, respectively. UBS uses the New York Fed’s Credit Market Distress Index for its analysis and noted past Fed actions typically required more extreme stress. The firm advises monitoring liquidity and issuance trends, noting direct asset purchases have historically been the most effective form of intervention.

• Economics: Wholesale trade in Canada rose 0.3% to $85.7 billion in February (excluding petroleum, oilseed, and grain), according to Statistics Canada. Gains were driven by a 7.1% increase in the machinery, equipment, and supplies subsector ($19B), and a 0.5% rise in food, beverage, and tobacco sales ($15.5B). The motor vehicle and parts subsector saw the largest decline, down 3.1% to $14.3B. In volume terms, sales rose 0.2% for the month.

• Oil: Oil’s drop below US$60 a barrel last week — with Brent futures hitting $58.40 — reflected fears of zero global demand growth, but this was likely an overreaction, said Gunvor Group’s head of research. The $25 decline from 2025 highs was driven by U.S.-China trade tensions and a surprise OPEC+ output boost. Gunvor estimates initial tariffs could reduce demand by about 380,000 barrels per day. However, U.S. shale growth may stall in 2026 if WTI remains near $60, though conventional U.S. supply could still increase..

• Commodities:  Alaska LNG, a proposed US$44 billion megaproject, would include a 1,300-km pipeline and liquefaction plant delivering 3.5 million mmBTU/day, mostly for export to Asia. The project has regained momentum under U.S. President Trump, with Glenfarne Group acquiring a 75% stake and a final investment decision expected in 2025. If built, it could compete with Canada's LNG sector, though it likely wouldn't begin operations until after 2030. Meanwhile, Canada's LNG Canada project is set to launch mid-year, with TC Energy urging a national strategy to secure Asian buyers.

• Gold: Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce and sees it reaching $4,000 by mid-2026, citing stronger-than-expected central bank demand averaging 80 tons/month and rising recession risks. UBS forecasts gold hitting $3,500 by December 2025, supported by demand from institutional and retail investors amid geopolitical uncertainty. Gold surged 6.6% last week, recently reaching a record high above $3,245/oz. Goldman now sees a 45% chance of a U.S. recession, which could drive further ETF inflows and push gold toward $3,880/oz by year-end.

First Majestic Silver’s Discovery

The stock market and stuff

• Nvidia To Spend $500 Billion Building AI Infrastructure In US Over Next Four Years (theDeepDive)

• Intel to sell majority stake in Altera for US$4.46-billion to fund revival effort (Globe)

• Justice Department Disbands Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (theDeepDive)

• Orla Mining Posts Q1 Gold Production Of 47,759 Ounces (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Patagonia Gold Secures US$40 Million For Argentina Project Via Sale Of 40% Interest (theDeepDive)

• Temas Resources: A Renewed Opportunity With An ASX Listing And Fresh Funding (theDeepDive)

• Calibre Mining Delays Ramp Up Of Valentine Mine To Q3 (theDeepDive)

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