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Fed Revisions Erase Industrial Rebound

The Federal Reserve has “revised its indexes of industrial production, capacity, and utilization using benchmark data,” effectively erasing five years of reported industrial outperformance, leaving total US industrial production in August 2025 roughly flat versus February 2020 instead of the previously reported 2.2% gain.

Over the same period, manufacturing output now shows a net 1½% decline rather than a 1½% increase, while manufacturing capacity and utilization are revised meaningfully lower across 2021–2025.

The biggest hit lands on 2022, where the annual rate of change in total IP is revised down by 1.7% and manufacturing growth is reprofiled from an expansion year into a contraction year. Across 2020–2024, annual manufacturing growth rates are revised down by about ¾ percentage point on average, turning what had looked like a solid post-pandemic rebound into a weaker 2021 recovery followed by a persistent decline averaging roughly 1¼% per year from 2022 through 2024.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Stalled Sisson Mine Approvals Test Carney’s Major Projects Office Fasttrack Agenda (theDeepDive)

• Canadian soldiers leaving military due to bad housing and health care (TS)

• Carney Douses Ottawa-Alberta Energy MOU With BC, First Nations Approval (theDeepDive)

• Ottawa reaches agreements with Ontario, Manitoba to streamline reviews for major projects (Globe)

• Newfoundland Premier Vows Return to Oil Industry, Seeks Federal Support (theDeepDive)

• Trump defends envoy Witkoff after leaked details of talks with Kremlin (FT)

• US Commits $100 Billion to Break China’s Grip on Critical Minerals (theDeepDive)

• The Reason Venezuela’s Maduro Won’t Resign Peacefully (WSJ)

• Joly’s France Envoy Stint Jumpstarts Carney’s Cabinet Overhaul (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Investors: Canadian investors shifted heavily into U.S. assets in early 2025, putting $61B into U.S. securities from February–June. This included $38.1B in U.S. equities/funds and $22.3B in U.S. bonds, with February–March accounting for over 75% of flows. Foreign investors pulled $22.4B from Canadian securities early in the year but later reinvested $31.9B by July–August. Overall, the first half of 2025 saw a net capital outflow of $84.7B from Canada.

• Economics: Core PPI rose 0.1% in September (vs. 0.2% expected), while headline PPI increased 0.3%, up 2.7% YoY; core was up 2.6% YoY. Goods prices jumped 0.9%—their largest rise since Feb 2024—driven by an 11.8% gasoline spike and 3.5%overall energy increase. Retail sales rose 0.2% (vs. 0.3% expected), with restaurants up 0.7% and overall sales up 4.3% YoY, outpacing the 3% CPI. Online sales fell 0.7%, while miscellaneous retailers posted a strong 2.9% monthly gain.

• Markets: Canada’s S&P/TSX rose 193.80 points to 31,094.45, driven by base metals. U.S. markets were also up: the Dow gained 363.11, the S&P 500 added 55.67, and the Nasdaq rose 216.60. The Canadian dollar strengthened to 71.16 cents US. Crude traded at US$57.99, while gold increased US$20.10 to US$4,197.40.

• Trade War: Ottawa plans to cut domestic steel-shipping costs by 50% through CN cooperation, with the federal government covering any rate gaps. Aid packages will expand, including raising support for softwood lumber firms to $1.2B, up $500M, amid U.S. tariffs of 50% on steel/aluminum and 45% on lumber. Trade talks with the U.S. are paused after Trump halted negotiations over an anti-tariff ad. PM Carney acknowledged a “poor choice of words” regarding communication with Trump amid opposition criticism.

• Tech: MIT’s Iceberg Index finds 11.7% of U.S. jobs are already technically replaceable by AI, exposing $1.2T in wages across 923 occupations and 3,000 counties. The visible tech-sector impact represents only 2.2% of wage exposure, with far larger risks in HR, logistics, finance, and admin roles. The model simulates 151M workers using 32,000 skills, helping states like Tennessee, North Carolina, and Utah test policy scenarios. Iceberg highlights nationwide — not coastal — exposure and guides billion-dollar workforce planning.

The Fed Cannot Let the Everything Bubble Burst

The stock market and stuff

• Nvidia Rushes To Defend Its AI Supremacy, Calls Itself “A Generation Ahead” (theDeepDive)

• DPM Metals Outlines $2.2 Billion NPV For Coka Rakita In Feasibility Study (theDeepDive)

• Proxy adviser ISS supports Anglo American bid for Teck (Globe)

• Barrick Sees Director Resign After Just Seven Months (theDeepDive

• Bitcoin ETF Outflows Near Record $3.6 Billion as Prices Fall 30% (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• West Red Lake Gold Commences 3,000 Metre Drill Program at Fork Deposit (JMN)

• Prospector Metals Drills 7.29 g/t Gold Over 14.0 Metres In Second Hole At Tess Zone (theDeepDive)

• Athena Gold Provides Exploration Update From Excelsior Gold-Silver Project, Nevada (JMN)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Northern Superior is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Northern Superior. The author has been compensated to cover Northern Superior on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.