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Is Carney Backtracking on Pipelines?

Prime Minister Mark Carney appears to be re-evaluating his stance on pipelines as the centerpiece of Canada’s strategy to address a “crisis” he blames on growing trade tensions with the US.

During an interview on the popular Quebec talk show Tout le monde en parle, Carney acknowledged that while major projects are necessary for economic stability, pipelines may or may not be the immediate priority.

“We must choose a few projects, a few big projects. Not necessarily pipelines, but maybe pipelines, we’ll see,” he said in French on the program. This shift came after host Guy Lepage pressed Carney on his earlier pledge to make Canada an energy superpower that could better resist what Carney calls aggressive trade policies from President Donald Trump’s administration.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Trump’s Turbulence Pushes Global Funds Away From US Investment (theDeepDive)

• Carney has renounced his British and Irish citizenships, pays his taxes in Canada: campaign (CBC)

• Liberal Party Leads in Canadian Polls, But Conservatives Gain Momentum on Economic Issues (theDeepDive)

• Annual pace of housing starts in Canada slowed in March, CMHC says (Globe)

• Pierre Poilievre Picks Up Support from Business Leaders (theDeepDive)

• Canada Scraps Tariffs for Automakers That Keep Plants Going (Bloomberg)

• Russia Escalates Asset Seizures, Targets Moscow’s Second-Largest Airport (theDeepDive)

• Trump administration halts $2.2bn in Harvard funds after university defies pressure (FT)

• America’s Manufacturing Revival Faces Reality Check: Workers Don’t Really Want Factory Jobs (theDeepDive)

• U.S.′ inability to replace rare earths supply from China poses a threat to its defense, warns CSIS (CNBC)

• CBC Gets Another Payday As Parliament Remains Suspended (theDeepDive)

• Canadian inflation surprisingly eases ahead of coin-toss Bank of Canada rate decision (Globe)

• Poilievre Sets Sights on Politicians’ Hidden Assets (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• US Economy: Foreign arrivals to the U.S. by plane dropped nearly 10% in March year-over-year, with Canadian flight bookings down 70% through September. Goldman Sachs estimates that reduced tourism and boycotts could cost the U.S. up to 0.3% of GDP in 2025—around US$90 billion. International travelers spent a record $254 billion in the U.S. last year, but retail spending from tourists may fall by $20 billion amid rising geopolitical tensions. Hotel rates dropped nearly 11% in the U.S. Northeast, likely due to fewer Canadian visitors.

• Inflation: Canada’s annual inflation rate slowed to 2.3% in March, down from 2.6% in February, mainly due to a 1.6% drop in gasoline prices and lower travel-related costs, including a 12% drop in airfares. Analysts had expected inflation to remain flat at 2.6%, but month-over-month CPI rose by 0.3%. Core inflation measures remained elevated, with CPI-median at 2.9% and CPI-trim easing slightly to 2.8%. The Bank of Canada is set to announce its rate decision Wednesday, with markets pricing in a 60% chance of a pause after seven straight cuts.

• Wallstreet: U.S. stocks rose modestly Tuesday, with the S&P 500 up 0.3%, the Dow Jones up 71 points (0.2%), and the Nasdaq gaining 0.3%. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.33% from 4.38%, down from a high of 4.48% last week, signaling some market calm after volatility driven by Trump’s trade war. Bank of America and Citigroup rose 4% and 2.3%, respectively, on strong earnings, while Palantir gained 4.6% after a NATO AI deal. Globally, Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 1.4%, and Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.8%.

• Real Estate:  Canada’s annual pace of housing starts fell to 214,155 units in March, down from 221,405 in February, according to CMHC. In urban centres (pop. 10,000+), starts declined 2.8% to 203,285 units. Single-detached home starts rose 1% to 43,012, while multi-unit starts dropped 4% to 160,273. The six-month moving average also declined 0.7% to 235,316 units.

• Oil: The International Energy Agency cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast by 300,000 barrels/day to 730,000, citing trade war impacts—half of the downgrade concentrated in the U.S. and China. For 2026, demand is expected to slow further to 690,000 barrels/day amid economic fragility and EV adoption. Non-OPEC+ supply growth is forecast at 1.3 million barrels/day in 2025 and 920,000 in 2026, outpacing demand and leading to a projected surplus of 1.7 million barrels/day in early 2026. Brent crude recently dropped below $60 before recovering to near $65.

The Treasury Market is Blowing Up

The stock market and stuff

• Antitrust Trial Begins as FTC Challenges Meta’s Acquisition Strategy (theDeepDive)

• Honda not considering moving auto production out of Canada: Ford, feds (CBC)

• Wall Street banks reap $37bn from Trump trading boom (FT)

• Kinross Gold Suspends Milling Operations At Tasiast Mine Following Fire (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Canadian Copper To Begin Exploration At Murray Brook East (theDeepDive)

• F3 Uranium Reports Early Discovery At Broach Property (theDeepDive)

• Canadian Auto Parts Giant Linamar Braces for US Tariff Impact (theDeepDive)

• PTX Metals Hits 0.5 g/t Gold Over 75.75 Metres At Heenan-Mallard (theDeepDive)

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