Sponsored by McLaren Resources

Liberals Eye Another Seat Gain

The Liberal government already have the bare number they need for a majority in the House of Commons but the next by-elections still matter because one newly opened Conservative seat in Quebec could turn a fragile 172-seat majority into a slightly safer governing margin, while forcing Conservatives to defend terrain they barely held in 2025.

The immediate target is Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, a Quebec riding vacated after Conservative MP Richard Martel resigned on Tuesday, according to the House of Commons membership record. Martel’s departure followed his appointment to the Senate.

Martel did not leave behind a blue fortress. He won Chicoutimi—Le Fjord in the April 28, 2025 general election with 17,356 votes, or 34.1%. The Bloc Québécois finished almost level at 15,857 votes, or 31.2%, while the Liberals took 15,820 votes, or 31.1%. The gap between first and third was only 1,536 votes.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Russia Halts Diesel Exports After Refinery Strikes Deepen Moscow’s Fuel Crisis (theDeepDive)

• Asking rents in Canada fall more than 4% from last year, according to report (CBC)

• Factchecking Trump’s History Lessons As Crypto Profits Raise Ethics Questions (theDeepDive)

• Bank of Canada told to not use replacement workers (Globe)

• Toll Settlement Gives Trans Mountain Certainty, But Not A Clean Exit (theDeepDive)

• US rare earths flow to Asia as domestic demand is slow to emerge (FT)

• Saudi Arabia Mulls Red Sea Pipeline Upgrade After Hormuz Crisis (theDeepDive)

• Trump Says He’ll Let Ukraine Make Patriot Missiles. It Won’t Be Easy (Bloomberg)

• Jivani Claims Canada Day Funding Require Multiculturalism Branding (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Oil: U.S. petroleum exports hit a record 13.6 million barrels per day in April, up 15% from the previous monthly record, as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz boosted global demand for U.S. supply. Crude oil exports reached a record 5.6 million bpd (+21%), while propane exports topped 2.0 million bpd for the first time and distillate fuel exports climbed to 1.6 million bpd, their highest level since July 2017.

• Feds: The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75% in June, but meeting minutes showed policymakers were split between expecting rate cuts if inflation eases and rate hikes if inflation remains elevated. Most officials expect tariff- and energy-driven inflation to fade over time, while Chair Kevin Warsh is also pushing for shorter, less forward-looking Fed communications.

• Politics: Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived in Saudi Arabia for the first visit by a sitting Canadian prime minister in 26 years, aiming to deepen ties in sectors including AI, mining, cleantech, agriculture, infrastructure, and defence after diplomatic relations were restored in 2023. The visit comes despite ongoing human rights concerns, with analysts expecting discussions on investment, regional security, and the Middle East, while noting Saudi Arabia remains a strategic but lower-priority partner for Canada.

• Real Estate: Canada’s average asking rent fell to $2,033 in June, down 4.3% year over year, marking the 21st consecutive annual decline and the lowest June level in four years, though rents edged up 0.2% month over month. Ontario ($2,233) and B.C. ($2,377) saw the largest annual declines (-5.3% each), while 70% of surveyed renters still cited high rent prices as their biggest housing challenge.

• Tech: OpenAI will publicly release GPT-5.6 Sol, Terra, and Luna on Thursday, ending a two-week limited rollout requested by the U.S. government, while also launching GPT-Live-1 and GPT-Live-1 mini voice models globally. GPT-5.6 Sol is OpenAI’s most capable model yet for coding, biology, and cybersecurity, as the company pushes back against government-only access becoming the long-term standard while complying with the Trump administration’s new AI evaluation framework.

This Company Is Sitting on $24 Billion in Gold

The stock market and stuff

• First Majestic Sells Idled San Martin Silver Mine for US$90 Million (theDeepDive)

• Silver Stocks Will Lead the Next Bull Run | Rick Rule (theDeepDive)

• Rivian tailspin hasn’t shaken one trader’s resolve (CNBC)

• Canada Injects $400M Into Teck Resources To Expand Strategic Metals Output (theDeepDive)

• Aya Gold & Silver Lifts Q2 Production 61% to 1.68 Moz (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• IsoEnergy Resumes Summer Drilling at Hurricane South Trend with Strong Initial Results; 11,075 cps over 3.5 m, Including 43,160 cps Over 0.5 m, Intersected on South Trend (JMN)

• Endeavour Silver Q2 Output Climbs 31% to 3.4 Million Silver Equivalent Ounces (theDeepDive)

• Andina Copper Intersects 164m at 0.70% Cu, 0.44g/t Au within 468m at 0.50% Cu, 0.30g/t Au in initial discovery drilling at Piuquenes North (JMN)

FULL DISCLOSURE: McLaren Resources is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of McLaren Resources. The author has been compensated to cover McLaren Resources on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.