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Liberals Surge Ahead in New Poll

A Mainstreet Research poll released Monday shows Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals holding a 15-point lead over the Conservatives, though the survey’s demographic composition has drawn scrutiny from polling observers.

The poll of 1,276 Canadian adults conducted from January 31 to February 2 found 51% of decided and leaning voters support the Carney-led Liberals, compared to 36% for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. The survey carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, called the findings remarkable compared to polls from late 2025 that showed a statistical tie between the two parties.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Ray Dalio: World Teeters On The Brink Of Capital War (theDeepDive)

• Canada and France set to establish diplomatic presence in Greenland amid Trump threats (Globe)

• Canadian Ports Rank Among World’s Least Efficient, Costing Billions in Investment (theDeepDive)

• Kirkland & Ellis lawyer sought use of Epstein helicopter after securing plea (FT)

• US Fighter Jet Shoots Down Iranian Drone Near Aircraft Carrier in Arabian Sea (theDeepDive)

• Ryan Routh Gets Life Sentence in Trump Assassination Attempt (WSJ)

• Ukraine Aligns US, Europe on Ceasefire Breach Triggers (theDeepDive)

• U.S. plans critical mineral price floors with Mexico, EU and Japan (CNBC)

• Epstein Files Trigger Wave of Resignations Across European Leadership (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• EVs: A Leger poll of 1,570 Canadians found 61% support allowing more Chinese electric vehicles into Canada after tariffs were cut from 100% to 6.1% with a 49,000-vehicle annual cap. Support was highest in Quebec (72%), and among men and those aged 55+, though about 75% of respondents still had concerns, mainly around vehicle quality, impacts on Canada’s auto industry, and data security. Nearly two-thirds worried about possible U.S. retaliation, but 57% opposed limiting trade with China to avoid U.S. pressure.

• Politics: Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre will meet Wednesday as Parliament’s winter sitting begins, with both sides signaling cooperation. Carney plans to seek opposition support on the Budget Implementation Act, affordability funding, crime legislation, and Bills C-9 and C-19, while Poilievre says Conservatives will help fast-track measures on cost of living, safety, and Canada-U.S. trade tensions. The meeting follows unanimous approval to ускорate Bill C-19 and reflects a more conciliatory opposition stance amid economic and trade pressures.

• Markets: U.S. markets were mixed as tech stocks dragged Wall Street lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.8% and the Nasdaq falling 1.9%, while the Dow edged up 0.1%. AMD plunged 17.2% despite beating earnings and revenue forecasts, highlighting investor pressure on tech valuations, while Uber fell 4.5% after missing expectations. Offsetting some losses, Eli Lilly jumped 8.8% on strong earnings and Walmart rose 0.6% after surpassing a US$1 trillion market cap. Gold rose 0.3% to US$4,950.80 per ounce and the 10-year Treasury yield dipped slightly to 4.27%.

• Gold: Gold rebounded above US$5,000 after a sharp pullback from record highs above US$5,500, driven by renewed buying amid high volatility, with 30-day gold volatility exceeding 44%. Investors are reacting to shifting U.S. dollar and interest-rate expectations following Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination, while big-tech earnings show divergence as heavy AI capex pressures stocks like Microsoft. Resource producers with U.S.-dollar revenues and Canadian-dollar costs remain relatively well positioned amid currency moves.

• Real Estate: GTA home sales fell 19.3% year over year in January to 3,082, while the average price dropped 6.5% to $973,289, falling below $1 million for the first time since 2021. Active listings rose 8.1% and days on market increased 21.6%, pointing to continued price pressure through the first half of the year. TRREB expects possible stabilization later in 2026 if confidence improves, but buyer intent fell to 22% and trade uncertainty plus slower population growth remain key headwinds.

Did Gold and Silver Go Too Far Too Fast

The stock market and stuff

• Canada to Recover Hundreds of Millions from Stellantis Over Plant Closure (theDeepDive)

• Tether retreats from $20bn funding ambitions after investor pushback (FT)

• Suncor Energy Sees Earnings Decline In Q4 2025 Despite Record Production (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Market Movers: PTX Metals Rises As Much As 63% On The Week As Uranium Subsidiary Go-Public Progresses (theDeepDive)

• Hercules Metals Drills 2.17% Copper Over 46 Metres At Leviathan Discovery (theDeepDive)

• CanAlaska Launches 12 Hole Drill Program At Key Extension Project (theDeepDive)

• Aurora Cannabis Swings To A Loss In Q3 2026 On Record Medical Revenue (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Silver47 Exploration is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Silver47 Exploration. The author has been compensated to cover Silver47 Exploration on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.