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Ottawa Bets on Private Capital Pivot

Canada seems to be taking a page from the US playbook as it plans to pivot to a crowd-in strategy that uses higher federal project spending and lighter regulation to attract private capital for its priorities.

“Our upcoming budget will ‘crowd in’ private investment. We will build Canada Strong,” Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said. In a Bloomberg interview he added, “What people will see in the next budget is fiscal discipline, a shift toward capital formation and a shift toward long-term prosperity.”

Champagne said the fiscal anchor will focus on operating restraint and a declining deficit ratio. “We have said that we’ll balance our operating budget by 2028 or 2029, and that we would have a declining deficit-to-GDP ratio over that period,” he said. He, however, did not commit to a path for net debt as a share of the economy.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Ontario, Ottawa Announce $29M Rescue for Newsprint Mill as Industry Shrinks (theDeepDive)

• Major Sites Hobbled by Amazon Web Services Outage (WSJ)

• Canada Opens $700M Loan Program for Lumber Industry Hit by US Tariffs (theDeepDive)

• Poilievre demands Carney cut taxes, keep federal deficit under $42B in next budget (CTV)

• Trump Administration Rolls Back Tariffs on Products US Can’t Produce (theDeepDive)

• New B.C. legislation promises power line to unlock northern development (Globe)

• Richmond Warns Owners Titles At Risk After BC Aboriginal Land Ruling (theDeepDive)

• Trump signals backing for Aukus nuclear deal with Australia (FT)

• Deep Sky to Invest $500 Million in Manitoba Carbon Removal Facility (theDeepDive)

• Trump says he expects fair deal with China, vows speedy deliver of subs to Australia (Reuters)

What’s the latest?

• Geopolitics: Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese signed a critical minerals deal worth up to $8.5 billion. The U.S. and Australia will invest over $3 billion in projects within six months, including a 100 metric ton gallium refinery and rare earth processing. Alcoa and Japan are part of joint ventures. This move aims to reduce reliance on China amid rising U.S.–China trade tensions.

• Markets: U.S. stocks rose Monday, with the S&P 500 up 0.6%, Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 253 points, and Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.8%. Smaller banks rebounded ahead of earnings from Zions Bancorporation, while Coca-Cola, Tesla, and Procter & Gamble are set to report this week. Global markets also rallied: Nikkei 225 hit a record high of 48,970.40 (+2.9%), and Hang Seng Index jumped 2.5%. China’s GDP grew 4.8% annually, its slowest pace in a year.

• Trade War: Canada granted tariff relief on select U.S. and Chinese steel and aluminum products to ease pressure on domestic industries. The Ministry of Finance (Canada) issued an amendment effective Oct. 15, with more details due Nov. 5. Exemptions cover goods tied to health, security, manufacturing, and agriculture. Prime Minister Mark Carney is negotiating with Donald Trump to reduce trade tensions while also engaging China on agricultural tariffs.

• Economics: Tech job security in computer science is declining due to automation, slower hiring, and increased competition. James O'Brien of University of California, Berkeley notes that entry-level roles are shrinking as AI writes 20% of code in some firms. The issue isn’t offshoring but automation, which could lead to wider unemployment. He advises students to prioritize higher-level problem-solving skills over basic coding.

• Rare Earth: U.S.-listed rare earth stocks surged Monday after China tightened export controls and Washington signaled support for domestic supply. NioCorp rose 9.3%, Energy Fuels 3.8%, USA Rare Earth 2.9%, Perpetua Resources 3.4%, and MP Materials 1.8%. Canadian miners like Lithium Americas (+2.6%) and Trilogy Metals (+2.2%) also gained. The U.S. plans to set a price floor and expand support for rare earth mining amid rising geopolitical competition with China.

Will Silver Stay at $100?

The stock market and stuff

• Ontario Snubs $4.6B Private Investment Seeking Only Power Supply (theDeepDive)

• Federal Housing Funds May Bypass Key Cost Condition, Expert Warns (theDeepDive)

• Iamgold to acquire Northern Superior Resources and Mines D’Or Orbec in push to consolidate Quebec holdings (Globe)

• Small Landlords Complain Of Uncertain Future As Foreign Student Numbers Plummet in Canada (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Prospector Metals Drills 4.64 g/t Gold Over 10.0 Metres At ML Property (theDeepDive)

• Antimony Rush: How The Critical Mineral Race Is Unearthing Valuation Gaps In Mining Firms (theDeepDive)

• Elemental Altus Sees Tether Take 51.4% Ownership Stake (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Antimony Resources is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Antimony Resources. The author has been compensated to cover Antimony Resources on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.