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Poilievre Targets Carney Over Jobs Slump

Leader of the Opposition Pierre Poilievre is moving Canada’s latest jobs numbers into the centre of his case against Prime Minister Mark Carney, arguing that weak employment data exposes a gap between the government’s economic message and its domestic policy record.

The Conservative leader posted two social media attacks on Carney, one aimed at taxes, energy rules, permitting, and reinvestment, and another built around a split-screen comparison of Carney’s remarks on Canada’s relationship with the US.

The labour backdrop is doing much of the political work. Statistics Canada’s April Labour Force Survey showed total employment down 18,000 from March, with the unemployment rate at 6.9%. The youth unemployment rate reached 14.3%, half a percentage point higher than the previous month.

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What’s going on?

• Ex-California Mayor Pleads Guilty To Chinese Agent Acts (theDeepDive)

• Trump plays down differences with Xi over Iran ahead of high-stakes Beijing summit (Globe)

• Senate Confirms Kevin Warsh to Federal Reserve Board in Tight 51-45 Vote (theDeepDive)

• AI minister names 44 projects getting federal money to access compute power (CBC)

• Belarus Prepares for War with Selective Mobilizations, Lukashenko Announces (theDeepDive)

• Contrarian 5% Bet on 10-Year Treasuries Is Gaining Credibility (Bloomberg)

• US Household Debt Hits $18.8 Trillion as Student Loan Delinquencies Surge (theDeepDive)

• Group linked to Trump sons asks US for extra $400mn for tungsten mine (FT)

• U.S. Inflation Surges to 3.8% in April, Highest Since May 2023, as Energy Costs Soar (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Prediction Markets: U.S. inflation rose to 3.8% in April, its fastest pace since 2023, driven mainly by higher energy prices from the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz disruption. Traders on Kalshi and Polymarket now expect inflation to rise even further, with growing bets that it could exceed 4.5% this year and potentially force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again.

• Politics: Doug Ford says he won’t attack rival cities bidding to host the new NATO-backed Defence, Security and Resilience Bank, but argued that Toronto is the strongest choice because of its major financial sector, large banks, pension funds, and global connections. Toronto is competing against Montreal, Ottawa, and Vancouver for the project, while Quebec groups continue lobbying heavily for Montreal.

• Markets: U.S. stocks pulled back Tuesday as rising oil prices and a sharp selloff in AI-related tech stocks dragged markets lower. The S&P 500 fell 1% from record highs while chipmakers like Intel, Micron Technology, and CoreWeave dropped sharply after massive rallies this year. Meanwhile, oil prices climbed again as tensions with Iran threatened the fragile ceasefire and kept the Strait of Hormuz largely blocked, adding to inflation concerns and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer.

• Real Estate: Jesta Group is taking advantage of Toronto’s weak condo market by planning to buy up to $500 million worth of unsold units over the next year, starting with a $30 million bulk purchase near Toronto Metropolitan University. The move comes as Toronto condo sales hit a 35-year low and unsold inventory surged to record highs, with thousands of completed units still sitting on the market.

• Tariffs: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency has already processed about US$35.5 billion in refunds tied to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump that were later ruled illegal by courts. The refunds, which include interest, follow a Supreme Court decision that Trump exceeded his authority when using emergency powers to impose certain tariffs, with as much as US$166 billion in tariff collections potentially subject to reimbursement.

Avenir x Fox River

The stock market and stuff

• Google and SpaceX Team Up to Put AI Data Centers in Orbit (theDeepDive)

• Jack Daniel’s Maker Brown-Forman Rejects $15 Billion Takeover Offer From Sazerac (WSJ)

• First Majestic Silver Posts Record Treasury, Quadruples Dividend on Q1 Strength (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Altamira Gold Extends Maria Bonita Porphyry System Westward With 70.6 Metres At 0.51 g/t Hit (theDeepDive)

• Canada Nickel Nears Final Permitting Decision on Flagship Crawford Project (theDeepDive)

• Antimony Resources Reports 13.9% Antimony in Latest Drill Core at Bald Hill (theDeepDive)

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