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Trade Truce on Thin Ice

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent over the weekend accused China of withholding “products that are essential for the industrial supply chains” of the US and its allies, citing semiconductors and medicines that ran short during the pandemic.

Bessent framed Washington’s agenda as “de-risk, not decouple,” stressing that the goal is to make “the whole world less reliant” on an “unreliable partner.”

The broadside followed Donald Trump’s Truth Social post claiming China “HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US,” adding, “So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!” Trump said his earlier tariffs had pushed Beijing into “grave economic danger,” prompting the “FAST DEAL” that was struck in Switzerland last month.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Canadian PM Meets Energy Leaders, Promises Collaboration (theDeepDive)

• Bank of Canada expected to hold policy rate as bar to cut is ‘quite high’ (FP)

• Ontario Signs Free Trade Deals With Alberta, Saskatchewan, PEI (theDeepDive)

• First Nations threaten highway blockages over Ford government’s Bill 5 (Global)

• Further Steel Tariffs Loom With Trump’s Erratic Trade Policy (theDeepDive)

• Ukraine and Russia agree to new prisoner exchange in Istanbul (FT)

• Alleged Million-File Leak Exposes Russia’s Nuclear Base Vulnerabilities (theDeepDive)

• Disney is laying off several hundred employees globally, source says (Reuters)

• Airlines Are Charging Solo Travelers Up to 70% More on Select Flights (theDeepDive)

• US Manufacturing Activity Contracted in May for a Third Month (Bloomberg)

What’s the latest?

• Stock Market: U.S. stocks declined Monday after a worse-than-expected U.S. manufacturing report, with the S&P 500 down 0.5%, the Dow falling 319 points (0.8%), and the Nasdaq losing 0.4%. Manufacturing contraction raised concerns as Trump doubles tariffs on steel and aluminum to 50%, effective Wednesday. Metal producers like Nucor (+10.7%) and Steel Dynamics (+10.4%) surged, while Ford (-4.1%) and GM (-4.2%) fell. Oil prices rose over 3% on OPEC+ supply moves and geopolitical tensions. The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.43%, driven by rising deficit concerns.

• Google: Google agreed to a $500 million, 10-year compliance overhaul to settle shareholder litigation accusing it of antitrust violations. The deal includes forming a dedicated compliance board committee, a senior executive committee reporting to CEO Sundar Pichai, and a cross-department compliance team. No monetary payout goes to shareholders, but lawyers may seek up to $80 million in legal fees. The reforms must last at least four years and follow pressure from pension funds over Google’s antitrust exposure in search, Ad Tech, Android, and app distribution. Google denies wrongdoing.

• Shopify vs CRA: A Canadian federal judge sided with Shopify over the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), blocking the CRA’s demand for over six years of merchant records. The CRA sought extensive personal and financial data, including names, bank account info, and transaction histories. Judge Guy Régimbald ruled the CRA's request was too broad and poorly defined. The CRA must pay $90,000 in legal costs. Shopify CEO Tobi Lütke called the request a case of “blatant overreach.”

• Commodities: U.S. aluminum premiums surged 54% on Monday to $0.58/lb, following President Trump’s announcement of a tariff hike to 50% on imported aluminum starting June 4. This marks a 164% increase since the start of 2025. The U.S. imports about half its aluminum, mostly from Canada. Goldman Sachs estimates premiums may rise to $0.68–$0.70/lbto reflect the full tariff. Meanwhile, Emirates Global Aluminium plans a $4B U.S. plant with 600,000-ton capacity by decade’s end.

• Tesla: Tesla executives confirmed the $25,000 Model 2 EV was canceled in early 2024, despite Elon Musk publicly denying the report. Tesla sales fell 13% in Q1 2025, marking its first annual sales decline in 2024. BYD outsold Tesla in Europe and leads globally in affordable EVs, with its Seagull hatchback priced under $10,000 in China. Tesla now plans cheaper variants of the Model 3 and Y, delayed to mid-2025.

First Majestic’s High Grade Gold and Silver Discovery

The stock market and stuff

• Aura Minerals Purchases AngloGold’s Mineracao Serra Grande Mine For $76 Million (theDeepDive)

• Meta Aims to Fully Automate Ad Creation Using AI (WSJ)

• Saylor Says ‘Bad Idea’ to Publish Bitcoin Proof-of-Reserves (theDeepDive)

• Elon Musk’s xAI seeks $113bn valuation in $300mn share sale (FT)

• First Majestic Silver: The Santo Nino Discovery (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Mako Mining Q1 2025: Revenue Surge, Record Operating Cash Flow Eclipsed By Huge Cash Burn (theDeepDive)

• ATEX Hits 1,090 Metres of 0.81% Copper Equivalent At Valeriano (theDeepDive)

• Brazil Potash Completes Site Prep For Port Terminal (theDeepDive)

• Emerita Resources Intends To Appeal Exploitation License Granted To Minera Los Frailes (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Giant Mining Corp. is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Giant Mining Corp.. The author has been compensated to cover Giant Mining Corp. on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. We may buy or sell securities in the company at any time. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.