Sponsored by Northern Superior

Trader Nets $553K Before Khamenei Strike

An anonymous Polymarket account called “Magamyman” collected more than $553,000 by betting that Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be removed from power — a wager placed just before a joint US-Israeli airstrike killed him on February 28.

The account did not stop there. Magamyman also staked roughly $87,000 on a separate contract predicting the US would strike Iran by the end of February 28 — a bet placed 71 minutes before the bombing campaign went public, when the platform had the probability of a strike at just 17%. That position returned more than $515,000.

Israeli police have opened an investigation into whether the account belongs to someone with access to classified military intelligence. Investigators noted this was not Magamyman’s first suspicious call: the account correctly predicted that Israel would strike Iran on October 26, 2024 — an attack that Israeli security sources say the government approved only days earlier.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Canada Strikes $12.1 Billion in Critical Minerals Deals, but Experts Question Whether It’s Enough (theDeepDive)

• Reactions mixed as B.C. to end time changes, adopt year-round daylight time (CBC)

• Ontario Speeds Ring of Fire Roads Ahead by Five Years (theDeepDive)

• Canada and India move to reset ties as trust in U.S. falters (CNBC)

• Two Fleets, Two Allies: Canada Considers Dividing Submarine Contract Between Germany and South Korea (theDeepDive)

• Iraq’s crude production on cusp of collapse (FT)

• IRGC Attacks Four Tankers Near Strait of Hormuz as US Destroys Iranian Naval Fleet (theDeepDive)

• Why China Is Doing So Little to Help a Friend Under Fire (WSJ)

What’s the latest?

• Trade War: President Trump said the U.S. would cut off all trade with Spain after Madrid refused use of Rota and Moron bases for Iran-linked missions, prompting relocation of 15 U.S. aircraft. Spain said the strikes were not covered under bilateral agreements or the UN Charter. Tensions also reflect disputes over defense spending (Spain won’t commit to 5% of GDP) and broader policy differences. A full trade cutoff would mark a significant escalation in U.S.–Spain economic ties.

• Energy: Brent crude surged nearly 8% Tuesday to above US$83 per barrel (up 15% since Friday) as Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed to 4 tankers/day from a 24/day average, disrupting ~20% of global oil and LNG flows. European gas prices jumped up to 40% (after a 40% spike Monday) as Qatar—supplier of ~20% of global LNG—halted output; Iraq cut 1.16M bpd and warned up to 3M bpd more could be at risk. U.S. gasoline rose above $3/gal for the first time since November, heightening inflation and political risks. Prolonged disruption could further strain global growth and energy supply chains.

• Real Estate: Greater Vancouver recorded 1,648 home sales in February, down 9.8% year-over-year and 28.7% below the 10-year average, with the benchmark price at $1,100,300 (−6.8% YoY). Condo sales fell 15.6% to 824, with prices at $708,200 (−6.8%), while detached prices dropped 8.8% to $1,835,900. Inventory rose 6.3% YoY to 13,545 (37% above average), though new listings declined 6.4% from last year.

• Markets: Canada’s TSX plunged 987.93 points to 33,553.34 amid escalating Iran-U.S.-Israel conflict, while the Dow fell 883.65 points, the S&P 500 dropped 113.22, and the Nasdaq declined 402.57. Crude surged US$5.96 to US$77.19 per barrel, raising inflation concerns, while gold fell US$186 to US$5,125.60. The Canadian dollar was steady at 73.09 cents US. Investors cite rising oil prices and prolonged conflict risks as drivers of a broad risk-off selloff.

• Economy: Foreign direct investment into Canada reached $96.8 billion in 2025, the highest since 2007, with $43.8 billion from mergers and acquisitions. Over half of inflows came from the U.S., with strong gains in trade and transportation, company management, and manufacturing. Economists caution that sector mix matters, as not all FDI builds domestic capacity or resilience. Analysts note some gains reflect groundwork laid in prior years rather than recent policy shifts.

Asking Mining CEOs What’s Coming Next | PDAC 2026

The stock market and stuff

• JPMorgan Sees Brent Jumping $120, 25-Day Supply On Hormuz Disruption (theDeepDive)

• Bank of America Sees Silver Could Price Up To $309 (theDeepDive)

• US petrol prices surge as Trump’s Iran war triggers inflation worries (FT)

• Cameco Seals $2.6B Uranium Deal With India as Carney and Modi Launch Free Trade Talks (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Is This the Most Overlooked Critical Mineral? (+1000% Move) | Guy Bourassa – Scandium Canada (theDeepDive)

• Is Gold Entering a New 15-Year Cycle? | Rob Husband (theDeepDive)

• Cambria Gold Defines New High-Grade Target Near Premier Mill (theDeepDive)

• A 100,000 Ounce Per Year Gold Plan in Utah | Scott Trebilcock — Revival Gold (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Northern Superior is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Northern Superior. The author has been compensated to cover Northern Superior on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.