Sponsored by Emerita Resources

Trump Floats Payback for Venezuela Oil

President Donald Trump publicly tied expanded US oil operations in Venezuela to a reimbursement promise, telling NBC News that companies funding repairs and upgrades would “get reimbursed by us, or through revenue,” and pegging an “up and running” timeline at fewer than 18 months.

In the interview, Trump framed the schedule as potentially faster than 18 months, but repeatedly emphasized cost intensity, saying “it’ll be a lot of money,” and that the oil companies will spend it before repayment mechanisms kick in.

Trump declined to quantify the bill, saying only that “a very substantial amount of money will be spent,” while arguing the private-sector economics work.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Switzerland Freezes Maduro Assets Days After Capture (theDeepDive)

• Canada needs new pipeline urgently to counter Venezuelan oil surge, Strathcona chair says (Globe)

• Freeland To Resign From Parliament “In Coming Weeks” After Zelenskyy Appointment (theDeepDive)

• Telegram hit by $500mn Russian bond freeze (FT)

• ‘It Was One Dance Move Too Many’: How Maduro’s Videos Triggered Deadly US Invasion (theDeepDive)

• Sweeping Minimum-Wage Hikes Take Hold Across the Country (WSJ)

• More Venezuelan Oil Could Mean Less Money For US Domestic Industry (theDeepDive)

• Private equity management fees hit new low in 2025 (CNBC)

• After Venezuela, Cuba? Trump Calls It “Failing Nation” (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Oil: Trump’s move to seize control of Venezuela’s oil sector raises the risk that Venezuelan heavy crude displaces Canadian oil in U.S. refineries, threatening Alberta exports. Canada exports ~4 million bpd to the U.S., while Venezuela holds 303 billion barrels in reserves and could scale output from ~1.1 million bpd significantly over time. PM Carney says Canada must diversify to Asia, backing a privately financed B.C. pipeline tied to the Pathways carbon capture project, with a project application due by July 1.

• NVIDIA: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said the next-gen Vera Rubin platform is in full production, delivering ~5× AI compute vs. prior chips and ~10× token-generation efficiency in large pods (>1,000 chips). The flagship system packs 72 GPUs + 36 CPUs, despite only 1.6× more transistors, using proprietary data formats and new “context memory storage.” Early adopters include CoreWeave, with Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle, and Alphabet expected to follow; demand for older H200 chips remains strong in China pending licenses.

• Market: Canada’s TSX rose 44 points to 32,264, driven by base metals and energy, while U.S. markets also advanced (Dow +229, S&P 500 +17, Nasdaq +37). The Canadian dollar slipped to US$0.7251, crude oil edged down to US$58.02/bbl, and gold jumped to US$4,485/oz.

• Real Estate: Ottawa plans to cut GST on new homes up to $1M (saving up to $50K), raise the HBP RRSP withdrawal limit from $35K to $60K, and allow 30-year insured mortgages for first-time buyers to lower monthly payments. Canada’s average home price is ~$690K, with the GTA over $1M, while incomes lag price growth. CMHC estimates 430K–480K homes/year are needed to restore affordability, versus current construction well below that level.

• Autos: Ford’s U.S. sales rose 6% in 2025 to 2.2 million vehicles, its best annual result since 2019 (2.42M), outperforming the industry’s ~2% growth. F-Series pickups were up 8.3% for the year, despite Q4 sales down 3.1% due to supply disruptions. EV sales fell 14.1% in 2025 (down ~52% in Q4), while hybrids rose nearly 22%, and ICE vehicles still made up ~86% of Ford’s volume.

Why Gold Is Being Treated Differently This Time

The stock market and stuff

• Canadian Auto Sales Rise Back to Pre-Pandemic Levels (Bloomberg)

• Pentagon Takes 40% Stake In JPMorgan-Backed US Smelter (theDeepDive)

• Canadian dollar extends losing streak as oil uncertainty raises trade pact risk (Reuters)

In the juniors

• First Phosphate Receives US$530,000 Pre-Payment Under Offtake Agreement (theDeepDive)

• CanAlaska Plans $15 Million Exploration Program At West McArthur For 2026 (theDeepDive)

• Lithium Argentina Hits 2025 Guidance With 34,100 Tonnes Lithium Carbonate Produced (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Emerita Resources is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Emerita Resources. The author has been compensated to cover Emerita Resources on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.