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Trump Launches $12B Farmer Relief Plan

President Donald Trump’s $12 billion farm aid package is said to be a “bridge” designed to keep producers liquid through the next season while export demand, especially to China, remains uneven.

Trump announced the program at a White House roundtable alongside Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and farm-state lawmakers, with the White House framing the money as coming from tariff revenue.

Rollins pegged the immediate program value at $11 billion for one-time payments to row-crop farmers, with another $1 billion reserved for specialty crops as USDA refines its assessment of those producers’ circumstances.

Rollins said the aid would move by the end of February, with Reuters reporting disbursement by February 28.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Did Europe Threaten to Dump US Treasury Bonds Over Ukraine Deal? (theDeepDive)

• U.S. and Canada discussed tariff-rate quota for steel before trade talks halted (Globe)

• California Resident Sues FanDuel Over Alleged Illegal Gambling Operations (theDeepDive)

• Oil market faces ‘super glut’ as supply surge hits prices (FT)

• G7 Flags Export Controls Risk in Critical Minerals (theDeepDive)

• Sam Altman’s Sprint to Correct OpenAI’s Direction and Fend Off Google (WSJ)

• Trump Administration Threatens Withdrawal from North American Trade Pact (theDeepDive)

• China set to limit access to Nvidia’s H200 chips despite Trump export approval (FT)

• Why BC Conservative MLAs Turned on John Rustad (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Oil: Strathcona Resources plans to grow production from 125,000 bpd in 2026 to up to 300,000 bpd by 2035, a ~10% compound annual growth rate. Founder Adam Waterous controls a C$6.5B stake and wants Canada to double oil and gas output. Recent growth is supported by heavy-oil assets acquired after its failed MEG Energy takeover bid.

• Politics: Conservatives forced a non-binding Commons vote supporting a pipeline to export at least 1 million barrels/day of Alberta bitumen to Asia. Liberals said they will vote against the original motion, arguing it omits key MOU terms like carbon pricing, BC engagement, and Indigenous co-ownership. Poilievre proposed an amended motion adding Indigenous and BC language but still excluding carbon pricing, with votes expected around 5:45 p.m. ET.

• Tech: Microsoft will invest $7.5 billion CAD (US$5.42B) in Canada over the next two years, with new AI and cloud capacity coming online in H2 2026. Its total Canada investment will reach $19B (2023–2027), alongside a new cyber Threat Intelligence Hub and expanded Azure services. Microsoft also reported $35B in capex last quarter and expects AI supply constraints until June 2026.

• Trade War: Trump warned of “very severe tariffs” on Canadian fertilizer as part of a US$12B U.S. farm aid plan. Canada supplies over 95% of its potash exports abroad, with well over half going to the U.S., which is highly dependent on Canadian supply. Earlier 2025 tariff threats drove potash prices from US$303 to US$348 per short ton, before tariffs were cut to 10%

• Markets: Canada’s TSX rose ~200 points (+0.64%) to 31,369, led by financial stocks. U.S. markets also gained, with the Dow up 161, S&P 500 up 14.7, and Nasdaq up 29.6. The Canadian dollar strengthened to 72.30 US cents, while oil fell to US$58.29 and gold rose to US$4,244.90/oz.

Banks Are Now Talking About $6,000 Gold

The stock market and stuff

• Paramount Filing Lists Backers Missing From Announcement In Warner Bros Hostile Offer (theDeepDive)

• Anglo and Teck Investors Back Deal to Create $50 Billion Miner (Bloomberg)

• Aya Gold Intersects 677 g/t Silver Over 15 Metres At Zgounder (theDeepDive)

• How Is Bell’s Crave Tied In The Netflix-Warner Bros Buyout (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Steadright Locks Up Goundafa Polymetallic Mine Under Binding MOU (theDeepDive)

• Cronos Group To Spend US$67 Million In Cash Acquiring European Adult-Use Firm (theDeepDive)

• Why Canada Has So Few Projects That Can Be Built Before 2030 | Dan Wilton – First Mining (theDeepDive)

• Rio2 Acquires Peru Copper Mine For US$241 Million (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Power Metallic is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Power Metallic. The author has been compensated to cover Power Metallic on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.