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Trump Seizes Venezuelan Oil

President Donald Trump announced that Venezuela’s interim authorities will turn over 30–50 million barrels of “high quality, sanctioned oil” to the US, to be sold at market price with the proceeds controlled by him as president for uses he said would “benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States.”

The plan, as described, is logistics-first: oil is to be moved by tankers and “storage ships,” then brought directly to US unloading docks, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright tasked to execute the plan immediately.

The core mechanics combine a physical oil transfer with centralized control of the resulting cash flow. The barrels move to the US, the sale is at market price, and the proceeds are explicitly placed under presidential control rather than described as routed through an external escrow, multilateral administrator, or separate trusteeship.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Justice Department Continues to Delay Full Release of the Epstein Files (theDeepDive)

• Quebec Superior Court approves class action against Ticketmaster over service fees (CTV)

• Venezuela’s Oil Terminals Go Dark as Blockade Drives Production Toward Catastrophic Collapse (theDeepDive)

• Carney heads to China next week, seeking new markets and better relations (Globe)

• Alberta Moves Forward With “Northwest Coast Oil Pipeline” (theDeepDive)

• Hedge funds hunt for Venezuela’s unpaid financial claims (FT)

• Sanctioned Tankers Make Mass Run to Break Venezuela Blockade (theDeepDive)

• Mike Johnson to be first US House speaker to address British parliament (Reuters)

• Netanyahu Approves ‘Iron Strike’ Plan Targeting Iran (theDeepDive)

• Trump Moves to Ban Big Investors From Buying Single-Family Homes (WSJ)

What’s the latest?

• Oil: Only ~10% of Canadian oil exports are at short-term risk of being displaced by Venezuelan crude, limited mainly to U.S. Gulf Coast refineries; ~70% of Canadian oil goes to the U.S. Midwest and ~10% to the West Coast, where substitution is structurally constrained. Canada produces ~5 million bpd versus Venezuela’s ~1 million bpd; analysts estimate Venezuela could add ~0.5 million bpd short term, but returning to historic 3–3.5 million bpd would require ~US$100B and up to a decade. A full 10% displacement implies ~$13B in lost exports and a ~3% GDP hit to Alberta, with added downside from potential price discounts on Canadian crude.

• Homes: Donald Trump said the U.S. should ban large institutional investors from buying single-family homes, aiming to curb corporate ownership blamed for higher prices. After the statement, Invitation Homes fell ~7% and Blackstone dropped ~4%. U.S. median existing single-family home prices were $426,800 in Q3 2025 (record $435,300 earlier in 2025), while 30-year mortgage rates are ~6.19%, underscoring affordability pressure.

• Market: U.S. markets were mixed Wednesday: the S&P 500 +0.1%, Nasdaq +0.6%, and Dow −0.4%, with gains driven mainly by large tech stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft. About 70% of S&P 500 stocks declined, showing narrow market leadership. Oil fell on supply expectations, with WTI −2.2% to US$55.87, while the 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.14% amid mixed economic data.

• Real Estate: Greater Toronto home sales fell 8.9% YoY in December to 3,697 units, with prices also down as the average sale price dropped 5.1% to $1.01M. Total 2025 sales were down 11.2% YoY, while new listings rose 10.1%, giving buyers more negotiating power. TRREB says improved affordability from lower rates could support a market recovery in 2026 if economic confidence improves.

• Politics: Prime Minister Mark Carney will visit China Jan. 13–17, the first Canadian PM visit since 2017, to advance engagement on trade, energy, agriculture and security. The trip follows high-level meetings with Premier Li Qiang (September) and President Xi Jinping (October), where Carney described ties as at a “turning point.” Canada–China relations have been strained since 2018 (Meng Wanzhou arrest; >1,000 days detention of Kovrig and Spavor), making this visit a significant reset effort.

Dolly Varden Silver x Contango ORE

The stock market and stuff

• Global Bond Sales Hit Record $230 Billion to Kick Off 2026 (Bloomberg)

• OR Royalties Records 2025 Production Of 80,775 Gold Equivalent Ounces, Meeting The Lower End Of Guidance (theDeepDive)

• Tesla CEO Musk brushes off Nvidia self-driving competition as 5 or 6 years away (CNBC)

In the juniors

• First Mining’s Springpole Gold Project Poised To Inject $15 Billion Into Canadian Economy (theDeepDive)

• Revival Gold Intercepts 1.8 g/t Gold Over 26 Meters and Provides Update on Mercur Heap Leach Project in Utah (JMN)

• Nations Royalty Names Derrick Pattenden As President And CEO (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: ESGold Corp. is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of ESGold Corp. The author has been compensated to cover ESGold Corp. on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.