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U.S. Considers Shorting Oil

Washington is preparing to wade directly into the oil futures market, with a senior White House official confirming on March 5 that the Treasury Department plans to roll out a package of measures targeting surging energy prices as early as Thursday.

If true, the proposed action would have the government take trading positions in commodity markets to drive down fuel costs — a departure from Washington’s established approach of releasing physical oil reserves to counter price spikes. Analysts say the strategy carries significant risks and does not address the disruption to physical supply, driving prices higher.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• U.S. payrolls unexpectedly fell by 92,000 in February; unemployment rate rises to 4.4% (CNBC)

• Liberals Surge to 49% Support in Latest Poll, Widening Lead Over Conservatives Under Carney (theDeepDive)

• Canada launches new program to grant 33,000 foreign workers permanent residence, immigration minister reveals (TS)

• Qatar LNG Outage Triggers India Urea Output Cuts, Pakistan Supply Threats (theDeepDive)

• Costco says it would cut prices if it gets tariff refunds (Globe)

• Canada, Brazil Launch AI Nickel Exploration Partnership At PDAC 2026 (theDeepDive)

• Qatar warns war will force Gulf to stop energy exports ‘within days’ (FT)

• Anthropic Posts $19B in Revenue as Talks With the Pentagon Resume (theDeepDive)

• Kuwait Cuts Oil Production as Storage Fills Up (WSJ)

What’s the latest?

• Trade War: A U.S. trade court ordered refunds for companies that paid tariffs imposed under the IEEPA, after the U.S. Supreme Court (6–3) ruled the tariffs illegal because tariff authority belongs to Congress. Judge Richard Eaton said all affected importers are entitled to refunds, potentially covering over $130B collected. The Trump administration may appeal, and refunds could take time as customs reviews claims; interest may be included. The IEEPA tariffs have since been replaced by a temporary 10% global tariff (up to 15%, 150 days) that excludes CUSMA-compliant goods.

• Gas Prices: Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above US$84 per barrel (up $10+ since the conflict began), raising gasoline prices across Canada. Halifax gas rose 8.9¢ to 147.7¢/L, Toronto reached $1.439/L, Ottawa may rise 6–9¢, and Lethbridge increased ~10¢ to about $1.25/L. Analysts warn a $20 oil increase could add ~20¢/L to gasoline and up to 35–40¢/L for diesel.

• Real Estate: Greater Toronto Area home sales totaled 3,868 in February, down 6.3% year-over-year, while the average price fell 7.1% to $1,008,968 and the benchmark price dropped 7.9%. New listings declined 17.7% to 10,705, with active inventory at 19,414 (−2.4%). The condo market saw the largest sales drop (−12%), and an estimated 100,000 buyers are waiting for prices to stabilize before entering the market.

• Markets: U.S. stocks dipped as rising oil prices tied to the Iran conflict pressured markets: S&P 500 −0.2%, Dow −452 points (−0.9%), while Nasdaq +0.1%. Brent crude rose 2.9% to $83.74 and U.S. crude +4.6% to $78.15, pushing U.S. gasoline to $3.25/gal (+9% in a week). Higher energy costs lifted the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.12% and may delay Federal Reserve rate cuts. Retail and airline stocks fell sharply, while Broadcom gained 4.8% after AI chip revenue jumped 74%.

• Tech: OpenAI CEO Sam Altman criticized rival Anthropic amid tensions with the U.S. government after the Pentagon labeled Anthropic a “national security supply-chain risk” and banned its technology. Soon after, OpenAI secured a new U.S. Department of Defense deal, though Altman admitted the timing looked “opportunistic.” OpenAI recently raised $110B at a $730B valuation and has ~900M weekly ChatGPT users with a $25B revenue run rate, while Anthropic’s ARR is about $19B.

The Hidden Environmental Cost of Fertilizer

The stock market and stuff

• Carbon Policy Limbo Stalls $8.25B Canadian Natural Oil Sands Expansion (theDeepDive)

• Nvidia Halts China-Bound H200 Production, Pivots TSMC Capacity to Next-Gen Vera Rubin (theDeepDive)

• Israel’s Currency and Stock Market Surge, Even as War Rages (Bloomberg)

• Bank of Canada Pilots $100M Tokenized Bond With TD And RBC (theDeepDive)

• NexGen Energy Secures Final Federal Approval for Generational Rook I Uranium Project (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Vizsla Silver Confirms More Deaths As Concordia Search Continues (theDeepDive)

• Morocco Secures Top 15 Global Mining Spot; Aya Gold and Steadright Lead Sector Expansion (theDeepDive)

• Highlander Silver To Begin Trading On NYSE American (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Antimony Resources is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Antimony Resources. The author has been compensated to cover Antimony Resources on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.