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U.S. Oil Output Set to Fall

US crude oil production will decline in 2027 for the first time in six years, ending a run of record output that made the nation the world’s largest oil producer.

The Energy Information Administration projects US crude production will remain near the 2025 record of 13.6 million barrels per day in 2026 before falling 2% to 13.3 million barrels per day in 2027. The decline represents the first year-over-year drop in US oil output since 2021.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Trump Negotiated USMCA; Now He Wants To Quit (theDeepDive)

• U.S. House poised to vote against Trump's tariffs on Canada (CBC)

• Unprecedented Ground Stop: FAA Shuts Down El Paso Airspace for 10 Days (theDeepDive)

• Ten killed, including suspect, in mass shooting in Tumbler Ridge, B.C. (Globe)

• Were the Cameras Wiped After Epstein’s Death? (theDeepDive)

• Platinum miners favour payouts over projects even as prices surge (Reuters)

• Six States Introduce Data Center Moratorium Bills as AI Boom Strains Power Grids (theDeepDive)

• US economy far outstrips expectations to add 130,000 jobs in January (FT)

• Discord to Require Age Verification Through Face Scan or ID (theDeepDive)

• FHA mortgage demand rises as borrowers face affordability challenges (CNBC)

• SpaceX Accepted Chinese Investment Through Offshore Accounts, Court Testimony Shows (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Trade War: Trump announced an immediate restart of Canada–U.S. trade negotiations while threatening to block the Gordie Howe International Bridge unless the U.S. is “fully compensated.” Industry leaders view the development as a potential catalyst for talks, emphasizing the bridge’s economic role for the Windsor–Detroit corridor, which handles roughly $1 billion in daily trade. Michigan and Windsor officials rejected Trump’s claims and warned delays could constrain capacity, job growth, and supply-chain efficiency. The bridge is widely seen as strategic infrastructure and a bargaining lever in broader trade tensions.

• Shopify: Shopify reported Q4 profit of US$743 million (US$0.57 per diluted share), down from US$1.29 billion (US$0.99) a year earlier, while revenue rose 31% year over year to US$3.67 billion. Merchant solutions revenue reached US$2.90 billion and subscription solutions US$777 million, both showing solid annual growth. The company guided for low-30% revenue growth in Q1 2026 and authorized a US$2 billion share repurchase program. Results indicate continued strong top-line expansion despite lower net income versus the prior year.

• Markets: Canada’s S&P/TSX composite index fell 152.90 points to 33,103.93, pressured by a technology-sector decline led by Shopify, whose shares dropped over 10% (down $20.11 to $152.43) after earnings. U.S. markets were mixed, with the Dow down 57.10 points, the S&P 500 up 7.67 points, and the Nasdaq down 47.79 points. The Canadian dollar weakened to 73.51 cents US, while commodities rose, with crude oil up US$1.02 to US$64.98 per barrel and gold up US$48.90 to US$5,079.90 an ounce.

• Employment: U.S. employers added 130,000 jobs in January, beating expectations of 75,000, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% and hourly wages rose 0.4% month over month. Job growth was heavily concentrated in healthcare (≈82,000 jobs), manufacturing added 5,000, and federal government employment fell by 34,000. Benchmark revisions cut 898,000 jobs from prior payroll estimates, reducing 2024 job creation to 181,000 from 584,000 and lowering April–December gains to 120,000 from 251,000. The data suggests short-term stabilization in hiring, though economists remain divided on whether the strength is sustainable.

• Tech: Mistral will invest €1.2 billion ($1.43 billion) to build AI data centers and compute infrastructure in Sweden, its first major infrastructure expansion outside France. The company, founded in 2023, previously raised €1.7 billion at an €11.7 billion valuation, with €1.3 billion from ASML and backing from Nvidia and Microsoft. The Swedish facility, developed with EcoDataCenter, is scheduled to open in 2027 and will support next-generation AI models. Despite raising $2.9 billion, Mistral remains far smaller than U.S. peers, as OpenAI pursues up to a $100 billion round and Anthropic targets $10 billion.

Gold and Silver in Chaos

The stock market and stuff

• First Quantum Swings To A Profit In Q4 2025 As High Prices Offset Rising Costs (theDeepDive)

• Snowline Drills 1.00 g/t Gold Over 347 Metres As The Company Works To Improve Resource Confidence (theDeepDive)

• Activist Investor Pushes Warner to Walk Away From Netflix Deal (WSJ)

• DPM Metals Notches Record Annual Revenue On Rising Metal Prices (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• White Gold To Spin Out Non-Gold Yukon Properties (theDeepDive)

• Arizona Sonoran Copper Advances FS Drill Program and Updated Mineral Resource Modelling, Including Definition of a “Measured” Zone in the Parks/Salyer Starter Pit (JMN)

• Back to the Cariboo: Gold Rush History Meets Modern Discovery | Golden Caribou (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Sage Potash is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Sage Potash. The author has been compensated to cover Sage Potash on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.