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UAE Exit Shakes OPEC’s Core

The UAE’s decision to leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1 raises a larger threat than the loss of one producer: it may show other ambitious members that the fastest way around production limits is to quit the cartel.

The Middle East government announced the exit on Tuesday after reviewing its “current and future capacity,” ending a relationship that began when Abu Dhabi joined OPEC in 1967 and continued after the UAE’s formation in 1971.

Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision was not coordinated with Saudi Arabia or any other country.

The immediate market impact may be muted because the Strait of Hormuz remains largely shut amid the Iran war, restricting Gulf exports through a route that normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil. Brent crude traded above $111 a barrel on Tuesday, more than 50% above its prewar level, according to AP.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• White House Correspondents Dinner Had Lower Security Level Than Other Trump Gatherings, Says Report (theDeepDive)

• Iran Is Flooded With So Much Unsold Oil That It’s Stashing It in Derelict Tanks (WSJ)

• Carney Says Trump’s Quick Tariff Deals “Not Worth The Paper They Were Written On” (theDeepDive)

• Gold miners set to stay in Mali despite insurgency, industry sources say (Globe)

• Kim Jong Un Confirms North Korean Soldiers Ordered to Commit Suicide in Ukraine Conflict (theDeepDive)

• Canadian PM invited to attend European Political Community summit in May (Reuters)

• DOJ Argues White House Ballroom Would Have Prevented Assassination Attempt On Trump (theDeepDive)

• Ex-FBI Director James Comey indicted for his ‘8647’ seashell post on Instagram (CNBC)

• Canada’s New CUSMA Advisory Committee Holds First Meeting as Lutnick Calls the Pact ‘a Bad Deal’ (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Energy: Shell plc’s $22B acquisition of ARC Resources Ltd. (374,000 boe/day) strengthens supply from the Montney and boosts the likelihood of LNG Canada Phase 2, a potential $33B expansion that could double capacity at LNG Canada. The deal positions Shell as the No. 2 Montney producer and comes as global energy disruptions increase demand for stable LNG supply, improving Canada’s competitiveness in Asian markets.

• Tech: OpenAI will make its models available on Amazon Web Services via Bedrock in the coming weeks, following its revised deal with Microsoft that removed cloud exclusivity. The move expands enterprise access and includes tools like Codex and managed AI agents, alongside deeper ties such as a $38B+ compute commitment and use of AWS chips, signaling a multi-cloud strategy shift.

• Markets: Canada’s S&P/TSX fell 199.36 points to 33,618.83, dragged by tech and base metals, while U.S. markets were mixed (Dow +44.83, S&P 500 -48.56, Nasdaq -310.25). Oil rose to $99.74/barrel, gold dropped $108 to $4,585.70, and the Canadian dollar weakened to 73.09 US cents.

• UPS: United Parcel Service reaffirmed its 2026 revenue target of $89.7B (+1.2%) but warned rising fuel costs from the Iran war could pressure demand, despite expecting growth to resume in Q2; Q1 revenue fell 1.6% to $21.2B while EPS came in at $1.07 (vs $1.49 YoY). Margins remain under pressure (4% domestic segment), even as revenue per piece rose 6.5%, with ongoing cost cuts and automation efforts aimed at reaching a 9.6% operating margin target.

• Politics: Canada and Alberta are close to a deal to raise industrial carbon pricing to about $130/ton (from current $20–$40 credit levels), a key step to enable the $16.5B Pathways carbon capture project, though broader agreements on oil sands emissions and a proposed 1M bpd pipeline remain unresolved. The plan—backed by Mark Carney—ties pipeline approval to emissions commitments, but missed deadlines and complex negotiations mean progress on aligning climate and growth goals is still uncertain.

How to Tell Which Gold Stocks Actually Work

The stock market and stuff

• Barrick Names Leadership Team For North American Spinout, Listing Expected By Year End (theDeepDive)

• An AI Coding Agent Deleted a Startup’s Entire Database in 9 Seconds…Then It Explained Exactly Why It Shouldn’t Have (theDeepDive)

• OpenAI Misses Key Revenue, User Targets in High-Stakes Sprint Toward IPO (WSJ)

• Carbon Price Set to Hit C$130 Per Ton in Alberta Under Imminent Agreement (theDeepDive)

• BlackRock Brings $2.5B Crypto Collateral Fund To OKX (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Royal Canadian Mint Under Fire for Refining Gold Linked to Colombian Cartel (theDeepDive)

• Nevada King Gold Doubles Phase 4 Drill Program To 40,000 Metres, Provides Assay Results From Silver Park, And A Project Wide Permitting Update (JMN)

• Hemlo Mining Delivers Steady Production in First Full Quarter of Ownership (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Canadian Copper is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Canadian Copper. The author has been compensated to cover Canadian Copper on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.