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UBI Debate Returns to Canada

Days before the anticipated leadership contest, the decades-long conversation about a universal basic income appears ready to surge back into the national spotlight. The PBO’s latest report, released on February 19, 2025, updates its distributional analysis of a Guaranteed Basic Income and projects how such a program would affect federal spending, household income, and poverty levels.

According to the report, the gross cost of a GBI would approach $107 billion by 2025, excluding the effects of changes in work behavior. When a broader economic family definition is used, that figure drops to around $53 billion. These estimates do not include administrative savings from other programs but are counterbalanced by the report’s assumption that many existing tax credits for low-income individuals would be eliminated to fund the GBI.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Canadian Home Listings Surge in January Amid Trade Tensions (theDeepDive)

• Ottawa coffee shop ditching ‘Americano’ for ‘Canadiano’ on its menu (CTV)

• USDA Seeks to Ban Chinese Purchase of US Farmland (theDeepDive)

• Avian flu ‘would dwarf the COVID pandemic in terms of impact,’ researcher says (Globe)

• Digging Deep On DOGE’s “$55B Savings” (theDeepDive)

• IRS fires 6,000 employees as Trump slashes government (Reuters)

• Will The Trudeau’s Train Project, Alto, Leave The Station Before He Does? (theDeepDive)

• Trump’s Attack on Zelensky Signals New World Order Taking Shape (WSJ)

• Carney’s Pipeline Promises Seem To Be Lost In Translation (theDeepDive)

• OpenAI CFO talks possibility of going public, says Musk bid isn’t a distraction (CNBC)

What’s the latest?

• Cameco Earnings: Cameco Corp.'s Q4 profit rose to $135 million (31 cents per diluted share), up from $80 million (18 cents) a year earlier, with adjusted earnings at 36 cents per share. Revenue increased to $1.2 billion from $844 million, driven by higher uranium sales and prices. Uranium sales volumes reached 12.8 million pounds (up from 9.8 million), with an average realized price of $80.90 per pound (up from $71.65). Fuel services production dipped slightly to 3.6 million kg, but prices rose to $35.41 per kg from $32.19.

• Teck Earnings: Teck Resources reported a Q4 profit of $385 million (75 cents per share), reversing a $167 million loss (32 cents) from the previous year, with adjusted earnings at 45 cents per share (up from 4 cents). Revenue rose to $2.8 billion from $1.8 billion, driven by record copper production of 122,000 tonnes (up from 103,000). The company returned $1.8 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends in 2024, including $549 million in Q4. Debt reduction totaled US$1.8 billion for the year, with a US$196 million reduction in Q4.

• TFI: TFI International announced it will relocate its headquarters to the U.S., citing that 70% of its operations and most of its shareholders are based there. The move was criticized by major shareholder CDPQ, which holds over 4% of TFI shares (valued at C$624 million). TFI has acquired 137 companies since 2008, including Texas-based Daseke Inc. for US$1.1 billion last year. In Q4, TFI reported US$2.08 billion in revenue and US$1.19 adjusted earnings per share, both missing analyst estimates due to weaker demand.

• Loblaw Earnings: Loblaw reported Q4 net earnings of $462 million ($1.52 per share), down from $541 million ($1.72 per share) a year earlier, impacted by a non-cash charge related to increased PC Optimum redemptions. Adjusted earnings rose to $2.20 per share from $2.00. Revenue grew to $14.9 billion from $14.5 billion, with food retail same-store sales up 2.5% and drug retail same-store sales up 1.3%. Pharmacy and healthcare services grew 6.3%, while front store sales declined 3.1%.

• Mortgage: A Royal LePage survey found that 57% of Canadian homeowners renewing their mortgages in 2025 expect higher monthly payments, with 22% anticipating a significant increase. Among those facing higher costs, 81% expect financial strain, prompting spending cuts or downsizing. While two-thirds still prefer fixed-rate mortgages, interest in variable rates has risen to 29% from 24%. With 1.2 million mortgages up for renewal—mostly from the low-rate pandemic period—market uncertainty and potential U.S. trade tensions add to homeowner concerns.

The Blanket Appraisal

The stock market and stuff

• Cameco 2024 Revenue Surges But Earnings Still Down Following Westinghouse Acquisition (theDeepDive)

• European Central Bank’s annual loss hits record €7.9bn (FT)

• Hudbay Minerals Shares Crash On Q4 2024 Results (theDeepDive)

• Walmart Warns of Slower Sales Gains After a Bumper Year (WSJ)

• Ivanhoe Mines Sees Q4 2024 Earnings Miss Estimates, Bets Big On Portfolio In 2025 (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Allied Gold Guides To 387,500 Ounces Of Gold Production In 2025 (theDeepDive)

• Ascot Resources Looks To Raise $60 Million At Just $0.115 A Unit For Premier Gold Restart (theDeepDive)

• Blackrock Silver Hits 714 g/t Silver Equivalent Over 4.7 Metres Under Infill Drill Program (theDeepDive)

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