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Ukraine Waits on U.S. Security Pact

Ukraine and Russia concluded their first trilateral peace negotiations with the United States this weekend, ending two days of talks without reaching an agreement as territorial disputes remain unresolved.

The meetings were the first time officials from all three countries gathered since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the discussions as constructive but cautioned that progress depends on Russia’s willingness to compromise.

“A lot was discussed, and it is important that the conversations were constructive,” Zelenskyy said. “The central focus of the discussions was the possible parameters for ending the war.”

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Libya Signs $20 Billion Oil Deal to Double Production Capacity (theDeepDive)

• Treasury cancels Booz Allen contracts after employee leaked Trump tax records (CNBC)

• Quebec Joins Canadian Climate Retreat With Five-Year Extension (theDeepDive)

• China says Canada deal not aimed at U.S. after tariff threat (CBC)

• Canada’s Doors To Chinese EVs Start To Open With BYD, Chery (theDeepDive)

• Carney unveils hike to GST credit, other measures targeting affordability (Globe)

• Weaponizing US Assets Could Backfire Fast On Europe (theDeepDive)

• Donald Trump sends border tsar to Minnesota as ICE backlash intensifies (FT)

What’s the latest?

• Geopolitics: China said its preliminary trade deal with Canada—cutting tariffs on canola and granting visa-free travel—“does not target any third party,” after the U.S. threatened 100% tariffs if finalized. The agreement, announced during Mark Carney’s Beijing visit, drew backlash from Donald Trump, who warned it could enable Chinese dumping into the U.S. Beijing framed the pact as a win-win strategic partnership, rejecting zero-sum trade logic.

• Trade War: PM Mark Carney pushed back against Donald Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs over Canada’s China trade deal, framing diversification as consistent with CUSMA ahead of its review. Ottawa rolled out affordability measures, boosting the GST credit by 25% with a 50% one-time top-up, while China said the deal—cutting canola tariffs and allowing visa-free travel—does not target the U.S.. Markets were volatile as gold topped US$5,000/oz, and Trump escalated rhetoric, calling the China deal a “disaster.”

• Market: U.S. stocks edged higher (S&P 500 +0.6%, Dow +0.3%, Nasdaq +0.6%) while gold hit a new record above US$5,100/oz (+2.2%) and silver surged ~12% amid tariff fears and geopolitical risk. Energy and AI names led gains (Baker Hughes +3%, CoreWeave +9.7% on a US$2B Nvidia investment), while rare earths jumped after US$277M U.S. backing plus a proposed US$1.3B loan. Markets also reacted to Donald Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs on Canada, with the 10Y yield easing to 4.21% ahead of the Fed decision and mega-cap earnings.

• Trump: President Donald Trump sued JPMorgan Chase and CEO Jamie Dimon for US$5B, alleging politically motivated account closures, intensifying tensions between the administration and big banks. The clash comes despite expected regulatory wins for banks, including potential ~US$200B in capital relief, as Trump also pushes policies like a 10% credit-card rate cap and favors fintech and crypto competition. While bank stocks remain resilient, lobbying spend by the eight largest lenders rose ~40% to US$12M in Q4 2025, reflecting a more volatile and adversarial policy environment.

• Politics: PM Mark Carney unveiled the Canada Groceries and Essentials Benefit, boosting the GST credit by 25% over five years plus a one-time 50% top-up, benefiting 12M+ Canadians; a family of four could receive up to $1,890 this year(vs $1,100 previously). Additional measures include $500M for food suppliers, $150M for a Food Security Fund, and $20M for local food infrastructure, as food prices rose 5% YoY in December per Statistics Canada. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre pressed on affordability, while Carney denied spring election speculation and said he’s focused on results.

Gold Heads for $6,000 in 2026

The stock market and stuff

• Barrick North America IPO Hinges On Newmont ROFR (theDeepDive)

• NYSE Targets 24/7 Tokenized Stocks With Instant Settlement (theDeepDive)

• Gold Price Tops $5,000 for First Time (WSJ)

• Netflix Shifts Warner Bros Deal To All-Cash (theDeepDive)

• Allied Gold To Be Acquired By Zijin Gold For C$5.5 Billion (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Japan Gold Intersects Gold Mineralization Drilling At Mizobe, Encounters Banded Chalcedony Vein (theDeepDive)

• Gold X2 Outlines $6.6 Billion NPV For Moss Gold Project At Spot Pricing (theDeepDive)

• Goldgroup To Acquire NYSE-Listed Gold Resource Corp For US$372 Million (theDeepDive)

• Antimony Resources Drills 5.10% Sb Over 4.0 Metres At Bald Hill (theDeepDive)

• Stifel Reiterates BUY On Goliath Resources After Surebet Drill Results (theDeepDive)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Canadian Copper is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Canadian Copper. The author has been compensated to cover Canadian Copper on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.