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US Moves Toward First Seabed Minerals Lease

The Trump administration has advanced what may become the first federal offshore mineral lease sale in modern US history, taking another step toward establishing a domestic deep-sea mining industry aimed at reducing dependence on imported critical minerals.

Rather than announcing an auction, the newly created Marine Minerals Administration on Thursday released a Proposed Leasing Notice covering portions of the US Outer Continental Shelf offshore American Samoa. The document lays out the proposed commercial terms for a future lease sale and begins another required stage of the federal leasing process.

Acting MMA Director Matt Giacona said the proposed notice is intended to create greater certainty for industry while also encouraging local economic participation through hiring American Samoan workers, contracting local businesses, and using the Port of Pago Pago where practical.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• Mexico Clears Coastal Areas After Powerful 7.3 Magnitude Earthquake (theDeepDive)

• US pending home sales slump in June amid affordability challenges (Reuters)

• Nenshi Moves to Calgary as Alberta NDP Targets Six-Seat Gap (theDeepDive)

• Canada-US Bridge Pact Omits Canada’s Debt Costs, Document Shows (Bloomberg)

• Philippines Condemns China Daily Over Racist Monkey Video (theDeepDive)

• Import prices post surprise gain as costs of goods from China hit highest since 2008 (CNBC)

• Carney Says Canada Won’t Share Bridge Tolls Until Debt Is Repaid (theDeepDive)

• Trump Endorses Lindsey Graham’s Sister to Run for His Senate Seat (WSJ)

• Newly Declassified Documents Show Russia Meddled to Help Trump in 2020 (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Trade War: President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Canadian goods over wildfire smoke, accusing Canada of poor forest management and saying the economic cost of the pollution should be added to existing tariffs. Canada is battling 903 active wildfires (122 out of control), while Ontario Premier Doug Ford rejected the criticism, urging U.S. officials to send firefighting assistance instead of criticizing Canada.

• Tech: Chinese AI startup Moonshot unveiled Kimi K3, a 2.8 trillion-parameter open-weight model with a 1 million-token context window, claiming performance close to Anthropic’s Fable 5 and competitive with leading U.S. AI systems. The launch highlights China’s rapid AI progress, while Moonshot—reportedly seeking US$2B in funding at a ~US$30B valuation—continues to challenge U.S. leaders with lower-cost, high-performance models.

• Oil: The U.S. and Iraq signed about US$60B in agreements covering energy, infrastructure, healthcare, and communications, including new oil pipeline projects aimed at reducing reliance on the Strait of Hormuz. While the pipelines could eventually help reroute exports, analysts estimate they would not provide major capacity until 2028, when regional projects could carry ~14 million barrels/day versus the ~23 million barrels/day that previously flowed through Hormuz.

• Real Estate: Canada’s annualized housing starts fell 6% in June to 238,971 units from 253,083 in May, while the six-month average declined 2.8% to 248,123. Despite the slowdown, housing completions rose 8.4%, units under construction increased 0.2% to 375,469, and approved-but-unstarted projects fell 1.1%.

• Politics: Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre called on Mark Carney to release the full Gordie Howe Bridge agreement, citing inconsistent government explanations over whether net revenues or net profits will be shared. The revised deal opens the bridge on July 27, replacing the 2012 agreement under which Canada would have kept 100% of revenue until recovering the $6.4B construction cost, while the full text of the new agreement remains unpublished.

The Battery Boom Has a China Problem

The stock market and stuff

• SpaceX Launch Abort Tests Investor Faith in Starship Post-IPO (theDeepDive)

• Truth Social Offers Wall Street Faster Access To Trump Post Feed (theDeepDive)

• Apple targets dozens of OpenAI employees with legal letters (FT)

• EIA Reveals Millions of Reported US Oil Barrels May Be Unusable (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Nevada King Gold Receives BLM Approval For 482 Additional Drill Sites, Adds Third Drill Rig To Accelerate Fully Funded 40,000m Drill Program (JMN)

• Goliath Resources Extends Bonanza Zone 750 Metres, Golden Gate 600 Metres at Surebet (theDeepDive)

• ATERRA Metals Reports Totora Cu/Au Project Drilling Returns 284 m Grading 0.64% CuEq Including 180 m at 0.71% CuEq (JMN)

Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Antimony Resources. The author has been compensated to cover Antimony Resources on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.