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War With Iran Could Break Soon

Israel is preparing for a scenario in which war with Iran breaks out “within days,” according to two Israeli officials cited by Axios, even as some US sources argue the US may need more time.

The Trump administration is reportedly closer to a major war with Iran than the public debate suggests, describing a likely operation as a massive, weeks-long campaign that would resemble full-fledged war rather than a limited strike like last month’s pinpoint operation in Venezuela.

Sources cited by Axios describe the likely operation as a joint US-Israeli campaign broader in scope than the Israeli-led 12-day war last June, with Israel pushing a maximalist target set that includes regime change alongside strikes on Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.

You can read more on the matter here.

What’s going on?

• US Finalizes Critical Minerals Price Floor System, Pushes Allies to Join Anti-China Bloc (theDeepDive)

• Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux crosses floor to Liberals (Globe)

• France Commits to Six New Nuclear Reactors in Sweeping Energy Overhaul (theDeepDive)

• Trump administration reverses move to block Moderna flu vaccine trial (FT)

• Ottawa Signals Shift on Resource Development, Energy Minister Says (theDeepDive)

• U.S. Arms Sale to Taiwan in Limbo Amid Pressure Campaign From China (WSJ)

• Canada, India Near $3 Billion Uranium Deal Ahead of Carney’s Planned March Visit (theDeepDive)

• Some Democrats to boycott Trump State of the Union for rally (Reuters)

• Niger Signals Orano Thaw With Somair Uranium Handback (theDeepDive)

What’s the latest?

• Oil: Oil prices jumped about 3%, with WTI rising to $64.32 and Brent to $69.46, after U.S. officials signaled Iran failed to meet nuclear negotiation red lines and military action remains possible. Markets had fallen earlier on optimism from “constructive” talks, but sentiment reversed on escalation risk. Traders remain sensitive to the Strait of Hormuz, which carries roughly one-third of global seaborne crude, though Kpler reported no actual traffic halt. The U.S. has deployed the USS Abraham Lincoln, with the USS Gerald Ford en route, reinforcing geopolitical supply concerns.

• Real Estate: Canadian home sales totaled 22,533 in January, down 16.2% year over year and 5.8% from December, with declines concentrated in southern Ontario amid a major winter storm. New listings rose 7.3% month over month, while total inventory reached 140,680, up 4.5% annually but still 11.4% below the long-term average. The national average price fell 2.6% to $652,941, and the home price index slipped 0.9% month over month and 4.9% year over year. CREA continues to forecast a 5.1% sales rebound in 2026 and a 2.8% price increase this year.

• Markets: Forty-eight mining firms dominated this year’s TSX Venture 50, reflecting strong capital rotation into resources amid rising precious metal prices and commodity security themes. Ranked miners posted a combined market cap of $19.9 billion and an average share price gain of 443%, while overall exchange liquidity hit a 20-year high with trading volumes doubling in 2025 to 13.2 billion shares. Santacruz Silver Mining led with market cap growth of 1,137% and a 1,103% share increase, followed by Ucore Rare Metals with 1,109% market cap growth. Only three technology companies made the list, highlighting investor preference for mining and critical minerals.

• Tech: Arm shares rose over 1% after SEC filings showed Nvidia fully exited its 1.1-million-share stake (previously valued at $155.8M), unwinding an investment held since Arm’s 2023 IPO. Nvidia had been part of a $735M strategic investor group after its failed $40B acquisition attempt, but maintains a long-term Arm license, with products like Grace CPUs built on Arm architecture. Arm’s market cap stands near $135B, with fiscal Q3 revenue up 26% YoY to $1.24B, while the stock is up 16% YTD. Nvidia continues to hold large equity positions across tech, including CoreWeave, Intel, Nebius, Nokia, and Synopsys.

• Politics: Prime Minister Mark Carney launched Canada’s first defence industrial strategy at CAE, targeting domestic procurement and sector expansion. CAE reports ~50% of contracts tied to military work and 90% of simulators exported globally. The strategy projects up to 125,000 new jobs over a decade, roughly 2.5× the sector’s current size. Industry leaders warn success depends on significantly faster procurement, with the new Defence Investment Agency tasked to streamline contracts.

Barrick Mining Q4 Earnings

The stock market and stuff

• Meta Patent Would Allow AI to Keep Dead Users’ Social Media Accounts Running (theDeepDive)

• IAMGOLD Q4 2025 Profits Surge As Gold Price And Volumes Spike (theDeepDive)

• Arm shares edge higher as Nvidia sells entire stake in company (CNBC)

• China State Media Amplifies Tesla Failure In Unprecedented Musk Rebuke (theDeepDive)

• Meta Secures AI Patent To Simulate Absent Accounts, Even After Death (theDeepDive)

In the juniors

• Great Pacific Gold Provides Drilling Update at Wild Dog Project (JMN)

• Silver Tiger’s $2.35B Silver Blueprint: Two Mines, One Perfect Metals Market (theDeepDive)

• K92 Mining Announces Expansion of Near-Mine Infrastructure Dilatant Zone, Significant Depth Extension From First Set of Deeps Drill Program Results and Multiple High-Grade Intersections at Kora and Judd (JMN)

FULL DISCLOSURE: Emerita Resources is a client of Canacom Group, the parent company of The Deep Dive. Canacom Group is currently long the equity of Emerita Resources. The author has been compensated to cover Emerita Resources on The Deep Dive, with The Deep Dive having full editorial control. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security.